#美联储政策沟通和市场反应 The recent movements in the US stock market are truly interesting. Looks like there’s still some action left before the end of the year! UBS’s analysis is quite intriguing—they believe the pullback has already happened, laying the groundwork for a rebound. While I remain cautious about such predictions, I have to admit that there is indeed some technical support.

The S&P and Nasdaq have pulled back from their highs to around the 100-day moving average, which is definitely a key level. If they can hold steady here, the next move is worth looking forward to. However, what I’m paying more attention to is the Fed’s stance. The market’s shifting expectations for rate cuts are what truly drive the major indices.

During this period, I’ll be closely following the actions of several outstanding traders. Their accuracy in interpreting Fed policy is often higher than the market average. If they start increasing their long positions, that could be a good signal to follow. Of course, risk management always comes first. Even if I’m bullish on a rebound, it’s essential to build positions in batches and have stop-loss plans in place.

After all, the market is always full of uncertainty. What we can do is find a balance between opportunity and risk. Let’s wait and see if this December turns out to be, as UBS says, a carnival season for momentum stocks.