#比特币对比代币化黄金 Looking at the 4-hour chart, the trend is already very clear—a bearish market structure. The price has consistently been suppressed below the EMA 25 and EMA 99, and ever since these two moving averages formed a death cross recently, they've become a ceiling. That recent attempt to rebound toward 91,000? It got slapped right back down. Once this kind of high-timeframe suppression forms, there’s plenty of room to short.

The key now is to find an entry point. After getting pushed down by the 4-hour moving averages, the price is just grinding sideways at the lows—this consolidation looks weak. If you switch to the 1-hour or 15-minute chart, you'll see that any small rebound will likely fail right around the RSI 50 line—bulls just can’t push it up, and the main downward wave is set to continue.

Why is this short setup high probability? Three reasons: First, it follows the dominant 4-hour trend; second, the moving average resistance has already been validated; third, the current buying is too weak to support a reversal. Sellers are in control now.

**Specific Trade Plan (Short)**
Entry: Market price at 89,681
First target: 88,250
Second target: 85,500
Third target: 82,000
Stop loss: 91,550

Pay attention to the pace—if the price keeps churning between 89,500-90,000, it could be gearing up for a big move. But as long as it can’t hold the key 89,000 level, the drop below could accelerate quickly. Tokenized gold has been trending steadily lately, forming a contrast with Bitcoin—it’s possible that safe haven capital is quietly shifting.

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