Tonight at 3:00 AM Beijing time, the Fed is about to reveal its hand. The market is almost unanimously betting on a 25 basis point cut, with the CME futures implied probability nearing 98%.

To be honest, Powell is in a pretty awkward spot this time. Inflation numbers are indeed trending down, but the employment data has started to soften recently—it's like walking a tightrope. If they cut rates and inflation spikes back up, that’s a disaster. If they don’t cut and employment really collapses, there’s no way to dodge the blame.

There’s also internal disagreement within the committee. The doves are dead set on the unemployment rate, refusing to relax, while the hawks are clinging to CPI, insisting that 3% isn’t stable enough. In the end, it’s usually those few swing votes in the middle that decide the direction.

The recent rallies in US stocks and BTC are really just rehashing the “rate cut expectations” narrative. US Treasury yields have dropped back to around 4%, and the market seems to be saying: “Whatever, do what you want, I’m just going to lay low for now.”

But the real excitement always comes after the announcement:

**Scenario One: 25 Basis Point Cut (Most Likely)**
Odds are it’ll be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” situation—prices spike at first, then get hammered down by profit-taking. Don’t get fooled by the momentum.

**Scenario Two: No Change (Low Probability but High Impact)**
If they really don’t cut, BTC could drop $1,000–$2,000 in a flash—don’t ask me how I know.

**Scenario Three: Cut with Hawkish Rhetoric (Most Volatile Script)**
Giving out candy with one hand while holding a stick with the other—this kind of move causes the wildest swings and can really shake your confidence.

**My Take?**
Don’t go all-in betting on direction at moments like this. Light positions for fun are fine, but don’t get carried away. The real opportunities usually come after the emotions have settled and the market calms down. The more attention an event gets, the more likely it is to move against the crowd.

Keeping your position size steady is more important than anything else.