2025-12-07 09:20:17

At 3 a.m. on December 10, the Federal Reserve will hold another meeting.

How is the market betting this time? The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has soared to 84%, while the remaining 16% believe rates will stay unchanged.

Powell is probably having a headache right now: if he cuts rates and inflation makes a comeback, what then? But if he doesn’t cut and the unemployment rate really hits 5%, a certain former president will definitely be the first to jump out and start blasting him.

You can almost picture the internal group chat of those 12 FOMC members—the doves are getting anxious: "Hurry up and cut! If we keep dragging this out, the economy really won’t be able to take it!"

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SillyWhale

· 12h ago

84%? I bet they will cut, anyway if they do the crypto market will take off again. --- Powell really has it tough, no matter what he chooses he gets criticized. --- Wait, is it really only 84%? What are the other 16% thinking? --- The FOMC folks have probably been arguing like crazy, it's a lose-lose situation whether they cut or not. --- A meeting at 3 AM? This pace is making it hard for me to sleep too. --- Honestly, they have to cut, the economy just can't hold on anymore. --- That joke about the former president was really hilarious haha. --- Feels like it's a losing scenario no matter what choice they make, kind of tough. --- Will crypto really go up just because of a rate cut, can we trust that logic? --- It's impossible for 12 people in a meeting to completely agree.

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PoetryOnChain

· 12h ago

The probability of a rate cut is so high, but what Powell is thinking is still a mystery. It's another carnival for gamblers—84% and people dare to go all in? If there really is a cut this time, what if inflation comes back? It's a cycle. Powell: I don't want to choose either, damn it. No matter what I choose, someone will complain, so might as well just lie flat. We'll know the result in 24 hours—just waiting for the explosion. Unemployment rate vs. inflation, either choice is painful. Why are the doves in such a rush? The economy is actually pretty resilient. Waiting to see if a certain former president's Twitter comments will blow up. These past three months, the market has basically been dictated by that 84%. Whether there's a cut or not, it's all a gamble—crypto will just follow the trend anyway.

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