2025-12-07 11:00:31

#美联储重启降息步伐 $BTC The Fed has played its rate cut card, but the real test is just beginning.

Don't be fooled by this rate cut—it’s more like a compromise forced by inflation data and market pressure. What’s truly worth watching is the speech at 3:30 AM on Thursday. Powell has repeatedly signaled “unwillingness to continue easing” before, so this post-meeting statement is very likely to take a tough stance and pour cold water on the market.

Just look at the data: after the rate cut, the federal funds rate falls to 3.5%, which is already close to the so-called “neutral rate” range and no longer has a clear restrictive characteristic. But what about inflation? CPI is still hovering around 3%, far from the Fed's 2% target. Economic data hasn't crashed, and the unemployment rate is under control. With this combination, the rationale for further rate cuts doesn’t really hold up.

My view: after next week’s rate cut is in place, the market could enter an adjustment cycle. The prudent approach is to wait and watch, and only enter when the real turning point appears. The timing to watch is around April next year—if there are personnel changes at the policy level, a new round of easing may begin, and that would be the true signal of liquidity returning. Historically, such cycles usually last 3 to 5 years.

The next few months will be tough, but this kind of pullback is often a window to reposition. Stay calm and don’t get led by short-term fluctuations. $ETH

BTC4.25%

ETH8.84%

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alpha_leaker

· 5h ago

If Powell's speech is any tougher, we'll break through the support level next week. That's right, waiting and watching is the way to go—don't get fooled by this rebound. April next year? I bet they won't be able to hold out and will loosen policy earlier. It's tough in the short term, but this is actually a buying opportunity, bro. Rate cuts and CPI again—The Fed is really playing with fire. Wait, why does this logic feel like we're repeating last year's script? 3.5% interest is already the ceiling, right? There's not much room to go lower. Powell, stop talking nonsense and just show the data. Why make it so complicated? Calm down? I already went all in long ago, and now I regret it so much. Liquidity won't return until next year? How am I supposed to survive the next few months?

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PonziDetector

· 12-07 11:30

If Powell's speech is still hawkish this time, we need to get ready to buy the dip. The rate cut is just a smokescreen; inflation isn't dead yet. This adjustment might just be the beginning. Don't even think about it before next April—just hold onto your coins tightly. Feels like we're about to go through another round of tough times... but isn't that exactly the opportunity to make money? Anyone getting in now is just a sucker. Wait for the turning point.

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BTCRetirementFund

· 12-07 11:30

Powell’s tough talk this time is the real deal—don’t get fooled by the rate cut narrative. That speech early Thursday morning will probably tank the market, still waiting for it. There might really be a turnaround before next April, but right now it’s hard to hold on. Wait a minute, is this another trap to lure people in? Liquidity won’t return until a new cycle starts, which is a 3 to 5-year thing. In my view, this round of correction is actually a great time to position—what matters is having the patience to endure. Powell’s tough stance, plus the data, this one-two punch means we still need to wait and see.

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not_your_keys

· 12-07 11:30

Powell is really about to pull out the big moves this time, it feels like the real action is still ahead. --- The rate cut is probably a false signal, CPI is still so high, how can it be easing? --- Wait for that move in the early hours of Thursday, it might just crash the market. --- It’s definitely tough during this period before next April, but the opportunity is here too. --- Just watching for now, don’t rush to go all in, the roller coaster isn’t over yet. --- This combination of data really doesn’t make sense, a rate cut seems forced. --- Seriously, the next round of easing is the real time to enter, no need to rush.

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MEVSandwich

· 12-07 11:28

Oh my, Powell is playing mind games with us, cutting rates while swinging a big stick... You're right, the real test is in the post-meeting speech, we'll have to be careful not to get stabbed then. A 3.5% interest rate, huh? Honestly, there's not much ammo left, and inflation is still hanging on... I'm going to wait and see, just sit tight for a few months and watch how they perform. The personnel changes in April next year are the real turning point; when liquidity returns, that's when it's truly time to feast. The more it drops now, the more comfortable it feels—this is the best time to accumulate chips, bro.

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OnchainGossiper

· 12-07 11:27

Powell's words are worth more than the rate cut itself. Get ready to have cold water thrown on your hopes.

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Degen4Breakfast

· 12-07 11:19

Powell's maneuvers this time are really just a paper tiger. We'll know after his speech on Thursday. Is there going to be a blowup at 3:30 a.m.? Feels like we're going to get wrecked. Cutting rates only makes things worse? That logic is actually interesting. Just watching for now. The crypto game never changes anyway; waiting for that wave of opportunities when there's a personnel change. A few tough months don't matter. I'm waiting for this pullback to make my moves—hang in there, newbies. Powell, stop trying to fool us—3% inflation is still there. This rate cut was really forced, feels like he's definitely going to get slapped in the face later. I've marked down that April date next year. Let's see what the new leadership does then.

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AirdropHunterKing

· 12-07 11:07

If Powell's remarks turn out to be hawkish, I'm afraid this rally could be cut in half. There's barely any room left for rate cuts, and we have to wait until next April to turn things around—the days are really tough. The CPI is still stubbornly stuck at 3%, just thinking about it is frustrating. When will liquidity truly return? Instead of waiting for an inflection point, it's better to grab some reliable airdrops. That's the right way to take advantage of this window period. Just wait and see. Being anxious is pointless anyway, so might as well double-check those wallet addresses three or five times.

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