2025-12-07 12:21:39

#ETH走势分析 Crude oil held up pretty well at the close this Friday, with WTI settling at $59.67, up 1.2%. Market sentiment is warming up, so next week could get interesting.

To be honest, this rebound isn’t coming out of nowhere. Three factors are stacking up: expectations for a Fed rate cut are rising, and looser money usually boosts demand; supply is still tight, with unresolved geopolitical issues and a messy inventory structure; and on the technical side, there are signs of stabilization at the bottom.

Looking at the daily chart, the $56 level has been tested several times but hasn’t been broken, showing strong support. The candlesticks are still alternating between bullish and bearish, but the bears are clearly losing strength. The MACD is hovering below the zero line and hasn’t given a clear signal yet. But keep in mind, if $56 does break, it might be time to reconsider your approach.

The hourly chart is more straightforward—after finding support at the lower end of the range, moving averages are starting to fan upward, and short-term momentum is picking up. The current rhythm is a choppy upward move within the range, with a growing chance of a breakout, but short-term upside may be limited, so don’t expect a sharp surge.

What to do next Monday? Here are a few ideas:

Buying on dips is the main strategy. Watch the $59 to $59.5 zone—if the market pulls back to this area and holds after the open, consider going long. Target $61.5 to $62.5, with a stop-loss just below $58.5. The risk-reward ratio at this level is reasonable.

Shorting on rebounds is secondary. If it shoots straight up to around $62.5–$63, you can try a light short, targeting $61 to $60.5, with a stop-loss above $63.5. This is mainly to guard against an overextended rally—not recommended for heavy positions.

If a breakout does happen? If it holds above $63, add to longs and target $64 to $64.5, with a stop-loss below $62.5. Conversely, if it drops below $59, sit on the sidelines and wait to see if there’s a bottom-fishing opportunity around $58–$58.5.

There’s never 100% certainty in the markets. Macro data, geopolitical news, technical signals—any of these can change suddenly. Strategies are just guidelines; when it comes down to trading, you need to adjust flexibly based on actual price action.

Keep your logic clear, control your risk, and the opportunities will come naturally. Don’t rush—take it slow and steady.

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SeeYouInFourYears

· 9h ago

The 56 level really hasn't been broken, feels like there's still a chance next week. This rebound in crude oil, all that messy stuff on the supply side still hasn't been resolved. The Fed is loosening up, money is definitely flowing out, let's see how high it can go. Wait for a pullback to 59.5 before entering, the risk-reward is pretty good, target at 62.5. As long as geopolitics remain unsettled, crude oil can't really take off. The 59 to 59.5 range is key, let's talk if it breaks. MACD is still tangled up, if the signal isn't clear, don't rush to go heavy. Held up this week, but don't have too high expectations for next week, be prepared to take losses. Is 56 the bottom? Tested several times and didn't break, probably is. Crude oil is so closely tied to the broader market, need to be cautious entering now.

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RugPullSurvivor

· 20h ago

The resistance at 56 really held strong, it feels like the bears are indeed running out of steam. If we really pull back to 59 next week, I need to take a good look and see if I can catch this wave. Speaking of which, as soon as rate cut expectations heat up, crude oil starts to loosen up—the logic really makes sense. The 63 level feels like a watershed; if it breaks through, it'll surge upward, but if it fails, I'll have to reconsider. Risk control really can't be taken lightly—the lessons from before were too painful.

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SandwichVictim

· 12-07 19:54

That $56 level is really being defended, it actually looks pretty solid. Just worried about a sudden black swan event.

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ZenMiner

· 12-07 12:51

The $56 level is really tough to break, it's been tested multiple times without success. However, this rally isn't exactly unexpected—rate cut expectations combined with supply shortages make a rebound likely. Next week, keep an eye on the 59.5 level. If it pulls back and holds steady, that's the time to act. There's no absolute certainty in the market, so you still need to watch how the charts actually play out.

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MetaverseMigrant

· 12-07 12:50

56 really held strong at that level, that's rare. Feels like the bulls' patience finally paid off this time. --- As soon as rate cut expectations come in, liquidity loosens up, and supply is still tight. These two factors alone should be enough to provide support. --- Don't rush, don't rush. Aiming to break 64 in one go is too greedy. Wait for a solid retest at 59.5 before jumping in—there's still time. --- You can never predict geopolitics. If there's a sudden wave of negative news next week, it'll be trouble. Better stay alert. --- 63 is the real dividing line. Only after holding above it would I consider adding to my position—otherwise it's just setting up to get trapped. --- That's right. No matter how perfect the strategy is, you have to adjust flexibly to the market. That's what trading is all about. --- If 58.5 really breaks, it's probably time to rethink the approach. Trying to bottom-fish now is a bit premature. --- WTI's support structure is much stronger than before. At least in the short term, there's no need to worry too much about another sharp drop. --- The strengthening momentum on the hourly chart is a good sign, but don't expect a straight shot up. Feels like we'll be stuck in a range for a while. --- MACD is still tangled. If there's no clear signal, don't get too aggressive. Risk control should always come first.

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DegenDreamer

· 12-07 12:49

The $56 mark is really acting as resistance, feels like the bears are out of ammo. --- Rate cut expectations combined with geopolitical tensions—this rebound definitely has some momentum. Now it's just a matter of whether it can truly break through next week. --- Testing a small short position is definitely a safe approach, but I still prefer to wait for a pullback before getting in. --- That's right, no matter how clear the strategy is, it all comes down to how the market plays out. Staying flexible is key. --- I'm watching the 59 to 59.5 range too. If the market opens steady, it might really be a good opportunity to go long. --- Instead of guessing the top or bottom, it's better to follow the trend. This time, I feel like next week could be promising. --- Whenever there's geopolitical turmoil and supply gets twisted, oil prices are bound to keep fluctuating around here. --- Technical stabilization is a good sign, but don’t get too greedy—there’s definitely limited upside in the short term.

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MetaDreamer

· 12-07 12:37

The 56 barrier is really tough, and the bears have nothing left to say.

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BoredStaker

· 12-07 12:34

56 This key level really hasn't been broken, which means the bottom is still solid.

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FortuneTeller42

· 12-07 12:27

The $56 mark is really tough to break; it only gets interesting if it actually does. --- Whenever there are rate cut expectations, liquidity loosens up. The logic is sound, just worried it might be another false rally. --- I'm tempted to short around 62.5, but it feels easy to get trapped. --- No matter how good it sounds, we still have to wait for the market to speak. The technicals are still dragging their feet. --- Any geopolitical disturbance means recalculating everything. Don't be too optimistic. --- Saying "manage your risk" is as good as saying nothing; when it comes to actual trading, people are still greedy.

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SolidityNewbie

· 12-07 12:23

56 is really a tough hurdle, the bears are out of steam, this time it might actually go up. --- Wait, is the Fed rate cut expectation really that strong? Feels like another round of hype. --- Risk control makes sense, but when the market actually comes, who can resist the temptation? --- The 61.5-62.5 target is a bit conservative, feels like breaking 63 is no problem. --- The geopolitical issues aren't resolved yet, saying it's much more stable now is a bit premature. --- The hourly chart is indeed interesting, but unfortunately, I always end up buying at the top. --- Is the rate cut expectation really the main logic? Feels like supply tightness is still propping it up. --- Is there a high probability of a pullback to 59-59.5? I keep feeling it'll just surge straight up. --- No matter how good the strategy is, it can't withstand a bombshell from the news front. --- I really don't have the guts to bottom fish at 58.5.

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