A friend of mine once did something totally outrageous: he sold an 8.8 million yuan house outright and swapped it for 28 kilograms of solid gold. Everyone around him was stunned—relatives banded together to persuade him, saying “Housing prices are still soaring, are you crazy to sell?” Agents whispered behind his back, “Too much money to burn.” Even the old man selling cigarettes at the gate shook his head.

Eight years later, the script flipped. That house is now listed at 6.5 million yuan with no buyers. And my friend? He casually sold 8 kilograms of gold (at 860 yuan per gram at the time), not only picking up the house again at a lower price, but also did a high-end renovation, and still has 20 kilograms of gold bars left. When I heard this story, I almost choked on my water—if this isn’t a living textbook on cycles, I don’t know what is.

To be honest, this kind of plot is all too common in investment circles. I’ve seen too many people: holding on after a certain asset goes up tenfold, saying “let’s wait a bit more,” only to give it all back; panicking during market lows, and then going all-in when prices surge; a few years ago, trashing certain things as “scams,” now stomping their feet in regret after seeing the prices. Many say it’s luck, but I believe—luck only favors those who understand the rhythm. The real pros never chase the hype; they quietly make moves at the turning points.

Here’s a hard truth: there are no assets that rise forever, only a constantly spinning cycle roulette. Why does gold hold up? Millennium-old hard currency—it preserves value even more in chaos. Real estate did create wealth in earlier years, but when policies change and supply-demand flip, what needs to fall will still fall. It’s the same in crypto: some assets are “safe haven shields” (you know, the ones called “digital gold”), dropping less during wild swings; others are “growth players,” which can multiply in a bull market but can’t withstand a bear market halving.

The key is, you have to know where you are on the roulette wheel. Is it time to hold hard assets for stability, or switch into high-volatility assets for a bet? It’s not something you decide on a whim—you have to watch for cycle signals: where the money’s flowing, how extreme sentiment is, which way policies are blowing. That friend who swapped for gold was smart because he saw the ceiling when the housing market was craziest, and bet on gold when it was unloved.

Cycles never lie; what deceives you is your own greed and fear.