#数字货币市场洞察 After spending a long time in this space, you’ll notice something quite mysterious: history never repeats exactly, but the market’s rhythm is always strikingly similar.

Look at the current market—doesn’t this seem like the classic script before an interest rate cut?

BTC is bouncing back and forth within a range of several thousand dollars, ETH is as still as if it’s asleep, and the other major coins have all collectively entered hibernation mode. How small is the volatility? Even derivatives traders can’t be bothered to look at the charts.

But don’t be fooled by this lifeless appearance. This calm isn’t due to a lack of stories, but rather the suffocating feeling before a storm.

Why is everyone playing dead?

The answer is simple—everyone is waiting for that shot from the Fed.

Bulls are afraid of jumping in too early and catching the last leg down, so they hesitate to enter; bears, on the other hand, worry that once the policy is announced, the market will explode upward, so they don’t dare to open positions rashly. Both sides are holding onto their chips and not moving, so of course the market has become stagnant.

But beneath this still water, undercurrents are stirring.

Rate cuts, in essence, mean injecting cheap money into the market. When there’s more money, it has to go somewhere, and high-volatility, high-growth assets like cryptocurrencies have always been a favorite of hot money. If you look back at the data, you’ll see that during periods of loose liquidity, this market has hardly ever been quiet.

These range-bound days are perfect for doing your homework.

Are on-chain tokens being concentrated in a few addresses? Is the total market cap of stablecoins quietly ticking up? Are there signs of off-market funds flowing in through ETFs?

These details are much more useful than guessing tops and bottoms by staring at charts.

Remember this: the longer the consolidation, the more violent the move when it comes.

If you’re also on the sidelines right now, try shifting your focus away from the 5-minute chart and pay more attention to macro policies and on-chain data. Before the wind arrives, those who fasten their seatbelts in advance are always the most composed.