2025-12-07 19:21:53

Prediction markets are throwing cold water on hopes for a US Bitcoin reserve anytime soon. Trading data shows just a 2% chance of it happening in 2025 under the current administration. Looks like BTC maximalists might need to temper those national reserve expectations for now.

BTC0.94%

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GameFiCritic

· 7h ago

What does a 2% probability mean? It basically means there's almost no chance. The market has already given the answer with real money... Rather than fantasizing about national reserves, it's better to look at which projects in the current ecosystem have truly sustainable tokenomics. Incentive mechanisms plus user retention are the keys to success.

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MEVHunter

· 12-07 19:52

What does a 2% probability indicate? It shows that the market pricing has already pushed this matter to the floor, which actually creates an arbitrage opportunity. When most people are saying "it's over," the fattest alpha is often hiding in the mempool... But to be honest, the whole idea of Bitcoin national reserves is a political gamble to begin with, and doesn't really have anything to do with on-chain data—it’s kind of as illusory as betting on whether a mining pool will switch main chains.

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ImpermanentPhilosopher