#数字货币市场洞察 $ZEC After this round of surge, Bitmex data shows that long positions have soared to 74%. Do you think this is a signal for further rally? It might be just the opposite.

Crowded consensus is often dangerous. Now that almost everyone is on the long side, who will be left to take the other side of the trade? Most of the shorts have already been liquidated, so the rally lacks opposing positions to provide fuel. This kind of imbalance has repeatedly proven to be a turning signal in history.

If you intend to take a contrarian approach, a few points need to be made clear:

This is a countertrend move, with extremely high risk, so only use a very small position to test the waters. If the price shows signs of stalling around $340, you can consider gradually building short positions. The target is the support zone between $330 and $315; if it breaks, it could head straight for $290. But you must set a clear stop-loss—if the price breaks above $352 and holds, exit immediately, don’t stubbornly hold on.

Remember this iron rule: use a loss you can afford to test your judgment, not your entire net worth to bet on a direction.

Market tops often appear when sentiment is at its peak. When data shows an extreme long-short ratio, will you join the crowd in celebration or remain calm and observant? The truly deadly risks are usually hidden in the consensus of “everyone thinks this way.”