Recently, gold prices have skyrocketed, and everyone in my social circle is showing off their old jewelry at home. Are you panicking? To be honest, after watching the market for so many years, my first reaction to a gold price surge isn’t excitement, it’s caution—this thing looks more like a “crisis warning line.”

If you look at the price chart for the past forty years, you’ll notice an interesting pattern: every time gold rallies, there’s usually a crisis lurking in the background. The surge from 1971 to 1980 had the 1974 financial crisis right in the middle; the bull run starting in 2001 was even crazier, with the 2008 turmoil sending gold prices through the roof. So with this current wave, you really have to ask yourself—what risk is the market actually hedging against?

What worries me isn’t the gold price itself, but the US dollar. That gold rally in 1971 was essentially triggered by problems with dollar credibility. Things haven’t reached that point now, but policy signals are starting to drift. Remember, gold prices are smart—they reflect not the present, but the market’s expectations for the future. If the dollar really weakens, this surge has basically already “priced it in.”

As for whether the crypto market will follow gold’s logic? Don’t oversimplify it. The kind of straight-line thinking like “dollar down, crypto up” often fails in real trading. While both gold and crypto assets have hedging qualities, their driving factors are completely different—you need to keep your eyes on three core variables...

(I’ll leave it here for now due to space; those three points directly relate to the safety of your holdings.)