Polymarket: 75% probability of Bitcoin surpassing $95,000 by December

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Biggest Bet on Bitcoin on Polymarket Predicts BTC Has 75% Chance to Hit This Price by December Original Link: The largest current bet related to Bitcoin on Polymarket, the world’s leading prediction market, is unsurprisingly about what the cryptocurrency’s price will be this December. It’s a pool with $88 million in liquidity and a huge range of possible guesses.

The majority of bettors predict the cryptocurrency has about a 75% chance of surpassing $95,000 still in 2025. Anyone wanting to buy shares of the “Yes” option pays 75 cents—and receives $1 if Bitcoin actually reaches that value, earning a profit of 25 cents per share. Those betting “No” pay 26 cents and receive $1 if the price does not reach the mark, resulting in a profit of 74 cents per share.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is around $91,000, up 2.2% in the last 24 hours. The rule for this bet is that prizes will be paid if the targeted price is reached by Bitcoin specifically on the order book of a crypto exchange in the USD trading pair and holds for at least one minute.

The market continues to price in bolder scenarios for the asset. Bets indicate a 42% probability that Bitcoin surpasses $100,000 in December, with “Yes” shares trading at 42 cents and “No” shares at 59 cents. For the $105,000 level, traders are pointing to a 27% chance, while the $110,000 threshold has only a 15% probability of being broken.

At even higher levels, optimism drops quickly: the market assigns a 7% probability for a rise to $115,000 and just 5% for a jump to $120,000 still this month.

On the opposite side, more conservative price ranges also reveal important expectations. There’s a 30% probability that Bitcoin will fall back to the $80,000 region, while the chance of a drop to $75,000 appears at 16%. Even stronger moves, such as a drop to $70,000 or $65,000, are seen as unlikely, with 8% and 4% chance, respectively.