#比特币对比代币化黄金 The real thing to watch from the Fed this week isn’t the almost certain rate cut, but rather which direction that massive $6.6 trillion balance sheet will go. That number isn’t just for show—it controls the entire market’s blood supply and directly affects how much oxygen crypto assets can absorb.

From its historical peak of $9 trillion down to the current level, the Fed has already drained $2.4 trillion in liquidity. The problem is, the overnight repo market has recently started to show unusual volatility, with increasingly obvious signs of soaring financing costs. What’s more concerning is that there’s $6.5 trillion worth of Treasuries about to mature, and how these assets are handled will be a key variable determining the market’s direction. If not handled properly, a liquidity crunch could hit faster and harder than most expect, and assets like $BTC that are sensitive to liquidity would be the first to take the hit.

But looking at it from another angle, what if the Fed is forced to end balance sheet reduction early, or even restart expansion? The picture would change completely. History tells us that every time liquidity shifts from tightening to easing, the crypto market often sees a significant rally.

So for regular investors, the most important thing right now isn’t guessing how high or low prices will go, but keeping a close eye on changes in liquidity signals. In a policy-driven market, making decisions based on capital flows is far more reliable than trading on gut feeling. Market sentiment may fluctuate, but liquidity data doesn’t lie. Stay calm, understand the macro logic, and you’ll be able to stand your ground in times of change.