#ETH走势分析 The change of leadership at the Federal Reserve may seem on the surface like a Wall Street power game, but in reality, it directly determines the global flow of capital. And wherever the money goes, the fate of the crypto market follows.

If Trump nominates Kevin Hassett and he takes office, it could bring a wave of liquidity to the crypto space in the short term, but in the long run, the real danger lies in the volatility caused by policy swings.

First, let’s talk about how this liquidity frenzy might unfold

If Hassett really takes the chair, rate cuts are almost a certainty. This guy has publicly called for a 50 basis point cut in December, and given his aggressive style, it wouldn't be surprising to see the federal funds rate slide below 3%—maybe even towards 1%. Once the dollar weakens—the dollar index is already struggling to hold the 99.2 level—capital will naturally flow into high-volatility assets. Looking back at the 2020 money-printing round, BTC averaged a gain of over 200%, and the logic this time is similar.

On Polymarket, his probability of being chosen has already soared above 86%, and the market is basically trading this as a done deal.

But Hassett is a rather special case

He’s not a traditional Fed chair candidate parachuted in from academia or a regulatory agency. This guy was once a member of Coinbase’s advisory board and holds Coinbase stock worth millions of dollars. In other words, he’s not just a bystander to the crypto industry—he’s actually put real money in. This kind of background is almost unique among Fed chair candidates.

The issue is he’s too close to the White House. Once the Fed’s independence is compromised, policy becomes prone to swinging with the political winds. Good economic data today means calls for rate cuts, but if inflation ticks up tomorrow, it’s an instant hawkish pivot—this kind of flip-flopping is a minefield for the crypto market. Money rushes in fast, but exits even faster.

How should ordinary players respond to this situation?

First, watch for two signals: what tone Hassett sets in his first policy statement after taking office, and whether US CPI and employment data can support the logic of continued rate cuts. These two things will determine how far the trend can go.

Don’t go all in on your positions. Keep 60%-70% of your main holdings in resilient assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, stick to regular buying, and don’t move rashly. The remaining 30%-40% can be more flexible, looking for event-driven trading opportunities around the rate cut window. But remember, before policy becomes fully clear, never chase rallies with high leverage, and set a hard stop-loss (like -8%)to guard against "good news fully priced in turns into bad news" pullbacks.

Ultimately, a Fed chair change isn’t a signal to FOMO in blindly—it’s a reminder to adjust your rhythm. Surviving volatility is far more important than making quick money in the hype—the real climax of a bull market always belongs to those who stay clear-headed to the very end.