This week is when the real battle begins. The most intense wave of central bank decisions in 2025 is about to hit, with the five major economies revealing their cards simultaneously. Is your portfolio ready to respond?
First, the main event—the Fed's tough fight: At exactly 3 a.m. on Thursday, the FOMC rate decision will be announced, and economic projections will be updated at the same time. Half an hour later, Powell will take the stage for a press conference.
Don’t just focus on the US—others are making moves too: Will the Bank of Canada follow with a rate cut? Where will Swiss safe-haven funds flow? The Reserve Bank of Australia’s actions often set the tone for commodities. Bank of England Governor Bailey’s speeches always contain a few key hints.
The market is currently pricing in nearly a 90% probability of a rate cut, but you need to understand—what really moves the markets has never been the rate cut itself, but how the dot plot is drawn and what Powell says. The biggest risk is the “sell the news” reaction, where a seemingly positive outcome turns negative because expectations were already priced in.
In the face of these macro waves, focus on survival first, then think about profits. Spend less time looking at candlesticks and more time checking the calendar over the next few days. BTC, ETH, and BNB all have to follow the central banks’ lead.
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OnchainDetective
· 12-08 05:52
According to on-chain data, the capital flows for this round of central bank decisions have already been exposed in advance. A 90% probability of a rate cut? It's an obvious market expectation trap—a typical "sell the news" move after a bullish catalyst is realized. What Powell says and how the dot plot is drawn—after analysis, the key lies in the subtle contradictions hidden in the wording. With five major central banks revealing their hands simultaneously, the underlying capital connections are worth a deep dive.
I already suspected this would be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario. Now it’s all about who can bottom fish and survive. BTC wallet flows have been a bit unusual these past couple of days; it’ll take tracking a few more addresses to pin down the real positions.
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RugPullSurvivor
· 12-08 05:52
Powell's mouth can really stir up a storm. A 90% probability of a rate cut sounds nice, but the real knife is in the dot plot.
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Rugman_Walking
· 12-08 05:52
Powell's mouth is indeed an x-factor; things with a 90% probability are often the most likely to crash the market.
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BearMarketSunriser
· 12-08 05:42
As soon as Powell speaks, it's time to run; the dot plot is the real killer.
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BlockchainTalker
· 12-08 05:42
actually, let's break this down—90% priced in means the real knife fight isn't about the rate cut itself, it's the dot plot theater & powell's exact wording. that's where the cascade liquidations happen, fr fr
Reply0
PositionPhobia
· 12-08 05:25
The shoe dropping turned out to be bearish instead. This time it’s for real. So what if there’s a 90% probability of a rate cut? The key is what Powell is going to say—if the dot plot gets skewed, it’s all over.
This week is when the real battle begins. The most intense wave of central bank decisions in 2025 is about to hit, with the five major economies revealing their cards simultaneously. Is your portfolio ready to respond?
First, the main event—the Fed's tough fight:
At exactly 3 a.m. on Thursday, the FOMC rate decision will be announced, and economic projections will be updated at the same time.
Half an hour later, Powell will take the stage for a press conference.
Don’t just focus on the US—others are making moves too:
Will the Bank of Canada follow with a rate cut?
Where will Swiss safe-haven funds flow?
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s actions often set the tone for commodities.
Bank of England Governor Bailey’s speeches always contain a few key hints.
The market is currently pricing in nearly a 90% probability of a rate cut, but you need to understand—what really moves the markets has never been the rate cut itself, but how the dot plot is drawn and what Powell says. The biggest risk is the “sell the news” reaction, where a seemingly positive outcome turns negative because expectations were already priced in.
In the face of these macro waves, focus on survival first, then think about profits. Spend less time looking at candlesticks and more time checking the calendar over the next few days. BTC, ETH, and BNB all have to follow the central banks’ lead.