2025-12-08 06:20:40

Here comes the main event of the week—on December 8, the Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision.

Looking at the data on Polymarket, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has soared to 93%. This is basically a done deal; the market has pretty much priced this in already.

But what's interesting is January next year. Based on current bets, the likelihood of rates staying unchanged at the January 28 meeting has risen to 68%. Another rate cut? Only 27% think so.

The rhythm is clear: one rate cut in December to stabilize sentiment, then a wait-and-see approach in January. The Fed’s moves this time have already been anticipated by the market.

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TokenToaster

· 3m ago

Even the Federal Reserve has never been as certain as us about a number like 93%, haha.

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LiquidityNinja

· 12-08 06:46

93% is pretty clear, there's no suspense anymore. January is the key—if the Fed really starts to hit the brakes.

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PumpStrategist

· 12-08 06:41

93% is basically 100%, there's no suspense this time. The real highlight is in January. The chip distribution shows that institutions are already offloading risk, just waiting to see how many retail investors go all-in during this December rebound.

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0xInsomnia

· 12-08 06:40

93% have already placed their bets, isn't it obvious? The Fed is just here to calm the markets. It's already been fully priced in. Now, January is the real highlight to watch.

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SellLowExpert

· 12-08 06:38

93% is basically telling us there’s no suspense left in this, it’s already been fully priced in. --- The probability of no change in January is so high, it feels like the Fed is leaving room for future moves. --- The market has already figured out the pattern; a December rate cut is just a reassurance, the real action is still to come. --- 27% still expect a rate cut… there really are people that optimistic, I didn’t see that coming. --- Looks like December is just a formality, January is the real turning point.

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MrRightClick

· 12-08 06:22

A 93% probability basically means it's already decided. This time, the Federal Reserve has long been fully anticipated by the market.

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Rekt_Recovery

· 12-08 06:22

tbh 93% is just market cope at this point... been here before, seen the rug pull after the "sure thing." december's a done deal yeah but that january pause? lmao that's when the real liquidations start happening. watched too many leverage addicts get wiped thinking the fed's got their back. diamond hands on the sidelines looking smarter every day ngl

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