With the Epstein files about to be released, why is the probability on prediction markets only 56%?

Question

[BlockBeats] An interesting game has recently emerged in a certain prediction market. The question on the table is: Will the Epstein files be made public on December 19 or before the end of the month?

Legally, it’s pretty clear. The “Transparency Act” signed on November 19 explicitly states—the Department of Justice must release all unclassified files within 30 days. So, the 19th is the deadline.

But the market clearly isn’t buying it.

The probability for “released on the 19th” is hovering around 56%, and “released by the end of the month” is only at 70%. These numbers seem contradictory, right? The law spells it out, so why is the market so hesitant?

The key is that the settlement rules are too stringent. The files must be released directly by an executive agency, through official channels like the website or a press release, and they must contain substantive information about Epstein’s illegal activities. Court unsealing doesn’t count, Congressional release doesn’t count, and just releasing metadata without real content also doesn’t count.

Editing is an even bigger headache. The DOJ has to redact victim details and sensitive identities, which is time-consuming, not to mention that the scope of redaction itself can easily spark legal disputes. If things get stuck at any stage and the files can’t be released according to the rules, the market will have to settle as “No.”

The most interesting part is the three players who are heavily betting on “No”:

0xtherealbatman bought $4,000 worth of “No” shares for the 19th at an average of 44 cents each—keep in mind this guy usually trades less than $10 per position.

ohawaffle went even bigger, buying $4,900 at 43 cents each, with a historical average position of $60.

VT2025 bet on the batch for the 31st, buying nearly $2,000 at 26 cents each, when their usual size is just $50.

All three have over 90% of their position concentrated, betting entirely that the files won’t come out this year, or if they do, they won’t meet the settlement criteria.

This kind of contrarian move is either because they’ve spotted some detail the market missed, or they’re simply betting that regulatory procedures will create delays. Either way, laws are laws, but when it comes to real-world implementation, there’s always some unexpected resistance.

LiquidityHunter · Accepted Answer

56% is an interesting price... The law is clear, but the market is still trading at half price, which shows that the settlement rules are indeed a trap. With such shallow liquidity, who would dare to go heavy before the 19th...

SquidTeacher · Answer

Haha, it's the same old "legal regulations vs market reality" routine again. That 56% figure is really something—it shows that everyone knows deep down this won't go so smoothly.

DegenTherapist · Answer

Haha, the law is one thing, reality always gets discounted. That’s why the odds are only 56%. Do you understand what “the devil is in the details” means?

What’s the use of just having a bill? The key is the settlement rules. These lawyers really make things complicated.

Prediction markets are more honest than the law, I’ll give them that.

What does 56% mean? It means that even with a transparent bill, people are still betting on whether the DOJ will pull something off. Listen to me...

The market knows; you can’t rely on government agencies.

This is the real use of prediction markets—much more accurate than polls. The market understands America better than lawyers.

The stricter the rules, the more cautious the market gets. Logic checks out.

With settlement conditions this tricky, no wonder no one dares to go above 70. Too cunning.

ZeroRushCaptain · Answer

56%? That's just ridiculous. The law is written in black and white, and yet the market is still gambling, huh? I think these people are probably going to make us bag holders again.

gm_or_ngmi · Answer

Ha, 56% is just ridiculous. The law is written in black and white, so what is the market still betting on?

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This whole government process, uh... don't even get me started, I'm already laughing.

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If the settlement rules get stuck, nothing else matters. That's why prediction markets will always be smarter than the law.

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70% by the end of the month? I bet this thing will be dragged out until next year.

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The DOJ is definitely editing like crazy, which is why no one dares to place heavy bets.

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Honestly, the law is the law, but if the government really wants to release it, they will; if they don't, they'll find a hundred reasons to delay. Prediction markets see right through it.

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What does 56% mean? It means no one trusts this government charade.

PebbleHander · Answer

LOL, the law is clearly written but the government is still dragging its feet. That’s why prediction markets only dare to give it 56%.

LayoffMiner · Answer

56% is truly outrageous. The law is clearly written in black and white, yet people are still gambling on it? This is the common problem of the government not keeping its word.

RebaseVictim · Answer

56%? LOL, isn't this just betting that the DOJ will drag things out again? No matter how clear the law is, it can't withstand the bureaucratic machine dragging its feet...

not_your_keys · Answer

56%? Haha, that's hilarious. This is the true face of prediction markets. The law is clearly written in black and white, so what are people still betting on? The DOJ folks are really masters of procrastination...