How will the market move after the rate cut is implemented? This question is a hundred times more important than making early trade calls.

The rate cut at 3 a.m. on December 11 is already a certainty. But if we look back at the rate cuts in September and October, the market didn’t strengthen as a result—the reason is simple, the fundamentals didn’t improve at all.

This time, things might be even more complicated. There are three hidden risks to watch out for:

**First risk: Bond purchase program**
The $45 billion per month Treasury purchase plan is very likely to be announced by Powell along with the rate cut. This move, in some ways, has a greater impact than the rate cut itself, and the direction is bearish.

**Second risk: Bank of Japan**
There’s an options expiration on December 19, and the Bank of Japan is very likely to raise rates at midnight. If the Fed cuts rates and Japan hikes rates right after? Carry trades could be crushed instantly.

**Third risk: US stock market trend**
On December 18 last year, the day of the rate cut, US stocks peaked and then fell. This year’s trend is almost identical to last year’s.

So what should we do now? My inclination is to position short in advance.

In the past couple of days, both longs and shorts have been getting wiped out in the market, and as the rate cut approaches, the risk of chasing longs is clearly higher than chasing shorts. For specific levels, you can refer to:

- **BTC short around 94,800**; the heatmap shows a large concentration of liquidations in the 95,000 area
- **ETH watch the 3,245 level**; this is right near the recent daily high of 3,240
- **SOL focus on 146**; also a daily high

For take-profit, I’m leaning toward a medium to long-term approach. From a macro data perspective, the room for this trade is worth being patient for.