Everyone yelling ‘altseason’ is early. This chart is the reality check.
Yellow = BTC price Green = total crypto market cap Thin lines = market cap of Top 10 / Top 50 / Top 100 alts Most of the move up this cycle, green has just followed yellow. BTC did the heavy lifting, alts came along for the ride. We only had a short window where green really pulled away from yellow – that was the mini-alt impulse. Since then, both rolled over and the smaller caps (Top 50 / 100) have been bleeding harder. Classic risk-off inside a bull trend: money hiding in BTC + a few strong names. > What this means going forward: As long as total cap and BTC are glued together, it’s still a Bitcoin-led market, not a full altseason. A real alt run usually needs: BTC to cool off and go sideways Total cap to make a higher low and break back above the last high Those Top 50 / Top 100 lines to curl up again → money rotating down the risk curve Until that happens, expect rotations, not a broad melt-up. Some narratives will send it, most random alts will just chop or bleed vs BTC. So yeah, you’re not crazy – it’s still mainly a BTC show with selective alt plays, not 2021 “everything pumps” mode… yet.
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Everyone yelling ‘altseason’ is early. This chart is the reality check.
Yellow = BTC price
Green = total crypto market cap
Thin lines = market cap of Top 10 / Top 50 / Top 100 alts
Most of the move up this cycle, green has just followed yellow.
BTC did the heavy lifting, alts came along for the ride.
We only had a short window where green really pulled away from yellow – that was the mini-alt impulse. Since then, both rolled over and the smaller caps (Top 50 / 100) have been bleeding harder. Classic risk-off inside a bull trend: money hiding in BTC + a few strong names.
> What this means going forward:
As long as total cap and BTC are glued together, it’s still a Bitcoin-led market, not a full altseason. A real alt run usually needs:
BTC to cool off and go sideways
Total cap to make a higher low and break back above the last high
Those Top 50 / Top 100 lines to curl up again → money rotating down the risk curve
Until that happens, expect rotations, not a broad melt-up.
Some narratives will send it, most random alts will just chop or bleed vs BTC.
So yeah, you’re not crazy – it’s still mainly a BTC show with selective alt plays, not 2021 “everything pumps” mode… yet.