#美联储重启降息步伐 Yesterday, there was quite a bit of volatility in the market—the Nasdaq futures dropped 1.5% right at the open, and Bitcoin fell even harder, plunging 6% within half an hour. The screens were covered in green, and a lot of people started to panic.

Some people in the group got anxious, shouting "the black swan is here," and after a flurry of moves, their positions were wiped out. But if you look closely, this drop was not a sudden event—it was a clear case of capital withdrawal.

The truth is actually very clear. The US government has been shut down for nearly 40 days, and the TGA account is about to run dry. Last week, over $160 billion in short-term Treasuries were urgently issued. What does this mean? The market has to come up with real cash to absorb it, and hundreds of billions in liquidity have been forcefully sucked away. Stocks and crypto are driven by capital flows, so when liquidity tightens, a drop is inevitable.

On top of that, the Fed’s statement—"policy direction is still undecided"—directly slashed the probability of a rate cut in December from 70% to below 45%. Short-term funds started deleveraging overnight, and liquidation orders flooded in, making the already tight liquidity situation even worse.

There's another detail that can't be ignored—interbank lending is starting to get tight. The Fed's emergency liquidity tools have been used up to post-pandemic highs, and banks are now nervous about borrowing money overnight. On the surface, it looks like the market isn’t short of money, but in reality, all the active capital is tied up in Treasuries and reverse repos, so there’s no way it can flow into stocks and crypto.

This drop isn’t the prelude to a bear market. Once the government shutdown is resolved and the Fed sends out dovish signals, the withdrawn funds will inevitably flow back in. Those who panic sell at this moment are just throwing away their chips at the bottom. The truly smart move is to hold onto cash and keep an eye on those mainstream coins that have been oversold.

Market volatility is never in short supply—what’s lacking is the rationality to see through the logic. The principles I mentioned before, like position management and not blindly following the crowd, are most useful in times like this. As soon as there are signs of capital returning, the opportunities will naturally appear. In crypto, the money is made by understanding the swings.