#美联储重启降息步伐 $ETH $SOL $ZEC

Fed rate cuts are imminent, but the real game-changer may not be about interest rates at all.

The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to continue cutting rates this week, but the key question is—after the end of quantitative tightening, how will the Fed manage its $6.5 trillion balance sheet? This is the real variable that will determine the direction of market liquidity. PineBridge’s Head of Multi-Asset, Michael Kelly, put it bluntly: "The rate side seems strict, but it’s actually not the main focus."

American stock market already gained nearly 17% this year. The wealth effect is real—but what's driving it? It’s the Fed’s balance sheet policy that keeps injecting consumer confidence into asset holders. Meanwhile, high interest rates are crushing small businesses and low-income groups, and the K-shaped divergence is becoming more pronounced. Credit card data makes it clear: high-income earners are still spending, while those at the bottom are being crushed by debt.

What’s even more sobering is that despite mounting calls for rate cuts, the 10-year US Treasury yield has instead risen to 4.14%, so borrowing is still expensive. The market’s real focus has shifted to a new question: will the Fed restart asset purchases?

Bank of America predicts that starting in January, the Fed may buy $45 billion in bonds each month to replenish reserves. Vanguard’s view is a bit more conservative, expecting bond purchases to proceed at a moderate pace, $15 to $20 billion per month, following the usual rules, but the weight of this signal is self-evident. Kelly predicts a 25 basis point rate cut this week, bringing rates close to neutral.

Now things get interesting—the Fed is expanding its balance sheet and “injecting liquidity,” but is proceeding very cautiously with rate cuts. Is this out of caution, or laying the groundwork for even greater uncertainty ahead? This liquidity drama is just getting started.