To be honest, looking at the current market, I actually hope it would just have a sharp drop.

Why do I think this way? It's simple—only when it drops near the real support trendline do I feel comfortable buying in. Even if I get stuck later, at least I feel at ease. What I fear most is chasing in at these awkward positions or at a rebound high. That feeling is like sitting on a volcano—once it starts to drop, it turns straight into a waterfall, and your mindset collapses instantly.

On the daily chart, the weakening signals are already quite clear. Consecutive bearish candles, increased volatility, and most importantly, the EMA7 has crossed below the EMA30—a death cross has formed. This usually confirms the short-term downtrend, with bears taking control.

Switching to the four-hour chart, the "range-bound downtrend" path is clearly laid out. Highs and lows are moving down step by step, and the bearish moving averages are pressing the price down tightly. However, the four-hour RSI is already nearing the oversold area, so we need to watch out for a potential short-term rebound at any moment.

Key points:

1. On the main trend, the daily death cross is confirmed and the bias is bearish—this is the basic premise for current trades.

2. In terms of timing, the next step is to watch whether the four-hour chart can stabilize at some point and organize a decent rebound. The strength of this rebound will directly determine whether the market continues to drop or enters a consolidation phase.

3. For specific operations, in a daily bearish structure, the strategy is to short at resistance during rebounds. If you want to bottom-fish, you must wait for two conditions: the price reaches a reliable support area, and the four-hour chart shows a clear reversal signal, such as a bullish divergence or a strong bullish engulfing candle.

When the trend is bearish, don’t rush to catch the bottom. Either follow the short after the rebound loses momentum, or patiently wait for a thoroughly washed-out, clear bottom signal.

12.9 BTC Trading Reference:

1. Short at 90999–90399, stop loss above 91999, target 88999–87999, continue to watch 86499 area

2. Long at 86488–87588, stop loss below 85488, target 87999–88888

12.9 ETH Trading Reference:

1. Short at 3159–3119, stop loss above 3199, target 3009–2969

2. Long at 2959–2999, stop loss below 2909, target 3069–3109