Another major Wall Street institution has changed its tune—Nomura Securities has just updated its expectations for the Federal Reserve. Previously, they predicted no action in December, but now they've joined the "rate cut" camp, expecting a 25 basis point cut.

However, Nomura admits that it’s hard to say for sure, as the December decision is full of uncertainties. The main reason for their change in stance is that the Fed’s centrists seem to have received enough signals to support a “risk management” rate cut.

Interestingly, Nomura predicts there will be internal disagreements: about four hawkish members are expected to vote against the cut, while Goolsbee may side with the doves and even support a direct 50 basis point cut.

Looking further ahead, Nomura expects that by 2026, the new Fed Chair will deliver 25 basis point rate cuts in both June and September. The impact of these policy moves on the crypto market is self-evident, as liquidity conditions directly determine where capital flows.