This week, global traders are focused on just one thing: how Powell will break the news.

A 25 basis point rate cut? Come on, that’s old news. But do you really think the Fed plans to hand out candy gently? Don’t be naive. This time, they’re playing “feed with one hand, stab with the other,” and the market might be getting pushed into an even deeper pit.

The real danger isn’t the rate cut itself, but the three swords hanging overhead:

First, how much will the language about “inflation” be softened in the policy statement? Every word is a signal.
Second, will the dot plot dare to lay its cards on the table—saying this is it for rate cuts this year?
Third, even a single pause or frown from Powell at the press conference could trigger a panic sell-off.

To make things even crazier, an unexpected wildcard has appeared: a 7.6-magnitude earthquake in Japan. USD/JPY shot up to 156 on the spot. This disaster didn’t just topple buildings; it also instantly scrapped the Bank of Japan’s decade-long rate hike plans. Global capital is now frantically rearranging positions.

Look at the current situation—US stocks and bonds are both acting up, ECB officials are defying the trend by even talking about possible rate hikes, while Brazil, Switzerland, and Australia are all choosing to sit back and watch. You can see the same unspoken line on every trader’s face: this rate cut isn’t about saving the market at all—it’s the Fed’s “survival test” for the whole world.

What’s even weirder is that market expectations have become completely torn apart. One camp is betting the Fed will manage a soft landing, while another already smells a whiff of ‘70s-style stagflation. If there are two dissenting votes during the decision, get ready for a bloodbath tonight.

To put it bluntly:
A historic rate cut colliding with a once-in-a-decade major earthquake—there’s no way this is just a coincidence. This is an extreme stress test of the new-era financial system. The mic in Powell’s hand is ten thousand times more important than the rate cut itself.