#ETH走势分析 Defense Line in Jeopardy! Fed's Midnight Decision Draws Global Attention

In the next few hours, the market could move in two completely different directions. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision at 3 a.m. tonight, with the probability of a rate cut already locked in at 87%. But what’s really making the market nervous isn’t whether there will be a cut—it’s the tone with which this rate cut will be delivered.

A “sugar-coated trap” rate cut is the real killer. On the surface, you get a cut, but behind the scenes, there’s a hint that no further stimulus measures are coming. If the market senses this signal, it could trigger an immediate short-term crash.

Right now, risk signals are already flashing:

**1. Major Funds Are Starting to Pull Out**
Last night, both US stocks and bonds fell in advance—this is smart money voting with their actions. Big institutions pulling out usually signals some kind of turning point.

**2. Geopolitical Uncertainty Suddenly Emerges**
Japan was hit by a 7.6-magnitude earthquake yesterday, disrupting the Bank of Japan's rate hike schedule and causing volatility in global liquidity. The market is already sensitive, and such unexpected events often become emotional triggers.

**3. Internal Fed Division**
At least 4 officials are prepared to vote against the decision. Such dissent is rare and shows there’s significant internal disagreement about rate cuts.

**The Key Is How Powell Performs:**

If he emphasizes that “inflation remains elevated,” the market reaction will be very cold; if the dot plot suggests that “next year’s rate cuts may fall short of expectations,” $BTC and $ETH could plunge. On the flip side, if he signals “continued monitoring and flexibility,” the market could immediately start an upward trend.

**For holders, several scenarios are possible:**

If the doves prevail, $BTC and $ETH are likely to retest previous highs, and the entire crypto market will ride a wave of bullish sentiment.

If the hawks win, there will definitely be a short-term pullback, but history shows us that such policy-driven panic often creates buy-the-dip opportunities—the harder the fall, the stronger the rebound tends to be.

Remember this: The door to the rate-cut cycle is already ajar. The overall trend hasn’t changed. The pace of policy may shift, but the direction toward rate cuts is basically set.

Tonight is bound to be a peak period for market volatility. Position management and risk control are the two words you must keep in mind. Right now, global investors are hanging on Powell’s every word—every phrase and every data point could trigger billions in capital flows.

$ZEC, $ETH, $BTC—no matter which one you’re holding, keep a close eye on your positions tonight.