#美联储重启降息步伐 The US Treasury bond game has leveled up, and the risks are rising along with it.

The recently released data is eye-popping: over the past year, the US Treasury has issued $25.4 trillion in short-term bonds, pushing the total outstanding amount to the astronomical figure of $36.6 trillion. What’s even more alarming is that short-term bonds now make up nearly 70% of the entire Treasury pool—almost a historical high.

What does this mean? Simply put, it’s borrowing short-term money to fill long-term holes. The government is using funds maturing next week to patch up gaps ten years down the line. This approach might look sustainable, but the risks are quietly building up.

The biggest hidden danger lies in interest costs. Right now, the annual interest burden the US faces is basically tied directly to the Fed’s rate hikes and cuts. You can think of the Treasury system as having a built-in interest rate trigger—if inflation rebounds and the Fed is forced to hike rates, interest expenses alone could surge to an unprecedented scale.

From another perspective, this isn’t just a future threat—it’s a risk that’s unfolding right now. The global capital markets are watching this closely, and everyone needs to be prepared.