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🔥Fed Decision Cycle Intensifies, Market Undercurrents Surge

In the first week of December 2025, the Fed's rate meeting hits a critical juncture. The market is betting that a 25-basis-point rate cut will be announced on December 10, and this expectation is almost set in stone. But beneath this “consensus” fog, a game of strategy is heating up.

Despite the seemingly certain rate cut, disagreements are colliding behind the scenes. The economic fundamentals point to weakness: core PCE continues to decline, inflation expectations are sinking, and employment data is lackluster. The decision-making body is divided—some advocate for a cautious rate cut, others want an aggressive 50-basis-point cut, and some prefer to hold steady for now.

Even more puzzling is the bond market’s behavior: as the rate cut window opens, 10-year US Treasury yields have instead soared above 4.1%, and term premiums have risen abnormally. This doesn’t look like a recession signal; instead, it seems investors are pricing in concerns over runaway inflation and ballooning debt.

The real wildcard might be hidden in the balance sheet. The probability of the Fed “restarting bond purchases” is being severely underestimated by the market. Institutional forecasts suggest that starting January 2026, the Fed may need to buy $45 billion in Treasuries monthly to maintain liquidity. Judging from recent statements by central bank officials, there are hints that reserves could come under pressure.

Liquidity alarms are already sounding. SOFR and repo rates have repeatedly hit their upper limits, and year-end funding conditions could tighten. The Fed does not rule out launching emergency operations.

The global landscape is also being reshaped: the Bank of Japan may pivot to rate hikes, Europe is adjusting its policy framework, and emerging markets are collectively cutting rates. The former “international financing hub” role of US Treasuries is loosening, and financing costs are rising month by month.

The biggest variable comes from policy. The new leadership’s influence over Fed personnel is increasing, and their stance on rates is clear—“lower rates are needed,” with pressure even being applied to fiscal policymakers. The Fed’s independent decision-making space is being squeezed to a new historical low.

A rate cut is imminent, but savvy traders know: the apparent policy adjustment is just the prelude. The real market turbulence may only be about to begin. Consider allocating a small portion to defensive assets—risk control comes first.