Subsequent Trend Analysis!

First, let's talk about two things to watch: one is the Fed's rate cut on the night of the 10th, which is basically confirmed and shouldn't have any surprises. The main focus is on Powell's speech—whether it's hawkish or not. Note that the end of quantitative tightening in December doesn't directly launch quantitative easing. We need to see if the speech mentions a rough timeline. Based on past experience, any quantitative easing typically triggers an upward market move. If Powell doesn't dismiss expectations of a rate cut next year and QE can start as early as February, it would be like a shot of adrenaline for the market, leading to a brief rally.

Currently, the market is still forming a four-hour and daily convergence structure and has been running along the upper edge, consolidating at the top and could break out at any moment. At this position, you shouldn't chase longs; it's better to wait for entry at the support below or try to chase longs if it breaks out and holds around 91,500. I still hope it can pull back to 88,888 before heading to 98,888, or even deeper to around 87,000, with an extreme of 85,300. Only after a pullback is it easier to get on board—at these resistance levels, it's difficult to hold long positions for long. Any entries might quickly get stopped out. For long positions at the bottom, I still recommend reducing some and holding the rest.

This may be intentional from the main players. Looking at the structure, the convergence happens to end around the 12th, which means when Japan's expected interest rate hike arrives on the 12th, there will be another round of long and short choices. Personally, I think in the short term, it's better to focus on low longs and supplement with high shorts. In the long run, regardless of circumstances, you should start building long positions in January. If a new bottom appears this month, I'll jump in as well.

Since the drop to 80,000 on November 21, the market has been moving up steadily, consolidating for half a month without making new lows. The lows are gradually rising. For pullbacks, watch the area around 87,100. The variable is Powell's speech tomorrow—if he keeps talking about inflation and delays QE, it could trigger the market's sensitive nerves again. Currently, inflation is already at 3% and employment is stable, so there really isn't much reason to continue cutting rates. Another thing to note is that recently, there are more voices betting on a sharp drop after the rate cut, and fewer people expect a Christmas rally this year. Could the main players surprise the market by pushing the price up after a rate cut and then dropping it again?

Back to the market itself—basically, it hasn't moved much in the past two days, as the market as a whole is waiting and the main players haven't acted. In the short term, a 5,000-point move is brewing. It's time to place your bets. The previous bullish engulfing pattern is still an effective bottom, and with positive news gradually adding up, aggressive sovereign players haven't entered yet. Everyone is waiting for the market to reprice after the rate decision.

Personally, my long-term bullish outlook remains unchanged. I believe a major bull market will start as early as Q1 next year. I'm not certain whether this is the stage bottom, but before the 10th, I’ll stick with low longs in anticipation of a breakout. Whether it can rise to 98,888 is another question, but I think the probability of a direct plunge before the rate cut is very low—unless there’s a false breakout with a strong volume bullish candle. For BTC, watch the supports at 89,000, 87,000, and 85,300; resistance at 91,200 and 92,700. ETH always follows BTC, so no need to analyze separately. For ETH, watch supports at 3,043, 2,955, and an extreme at around 2,805; resistance at 3,150, 3,190, and 3,255. There’s currently no clear direction on the charts. I think there won’t be any major moves in the next two days, as the main players are still observing. We should focus on short-term trades with low longs and high shorts, and make sure to set stop-losses for every order. Preserve your capital and look forward to next year’s bull market and the formation of this year’s bottom. This is an opportunity to double your assets—I hope everyone achieves great returns.