$BTC is consolidating around 90,000, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate meeting.

A 25 basis point rate cut has already been priced in (CME FedWatch shows a 90% probability). The real suspense is whether Powell will pour cold water on expectations for 2026.

If the Fed lowers rate cut expectations for 2026 = hawkish = BTC drops to 85,000.

If they maintain a dovish outlook = dovish = $100,000 could return this week.

Even more aggressive is the Bank of Japan, which is very likely to raise rates on December 18-19 (85% probability).

What determines the short-term trend is not the candlestick chart, but the words of the Fed Chair.