Regarding the Bank of Japan's rate hike in December, I think it's pretty much a done deal. The key question is, combined with the current market hype around the "Greenspan 2.0" narrative, how big of a wave will it actually cause?

Here's my conclusion—Even if there really is a rate hike this time, the market impact will be far less severe than what we saw on August 5 this year. Why? Let's look at the data.

Remember how bad things got on 8.5? The BOJ made a surprise rate hike, and on the Fed's side, employment data triggered the Sahm Rule, causing rate cut expectations to reverse sharply. With both negatives hitting at once, liquidity dried up instantly and the market crashed. I managed to dodge that one by taking profits on July 26.

But this time is different. Last year's flash crash was mainly due to forced liquidations of yen carry trades—leveraged positions shorting yen and going long on the dollar all blew up at once. But now things have changed:

USD/JPY exchange rate: On December 5, the Tokyo session saw it drop from above 155 to 154.56, with the yen appreciating just 0.3%. What does this tell us? Speculative short positions on the yen have already been significantly reduced, and most of the risk has already been released.

Yen carry trade size: Currently estimated at around $1.7 trillion, which is less than half of last year's peak. Most of the money has already pulled out, so where's the panic unwinding going to come from?

I got this data from some AI tools (way more reliable than the chatter on Twitter), and they've been quite helpful as references.

On the other hand, the market started going wild this week with the hype about Hassett as the "shadow Fed chair," and on Monday there were even rumors that Powell was going to resign, which sent "Greenspan 2.0 easing trade" expectations through the roof.

I usually use macro trends for direction and look at candlesticks for entry points. I opened a BTC short at the 93203 level—had a short-term position of 10 coins. But due to an API setting error, my entire position got liquidated, and I had to cut the short at 89200 to stop the loss.

Nothing to brag about here—after getting liquidated, my mindset took a hit and I didn't feel like opening a new position right away.

But this did remind me: every trade requires independent thinking. Don't let the shadow of your last trade influence your next one. As the market environment changes, your strategy needs to change too.

One last thing—if you really have no clue on macro calls, I suggest consulting some reliable AI analysis tools. It's a lot better than blindly copying trades.