Speaking of the “year-end rally” in A-shares, if you look through historical data since 2008, you’ll find an interesting pattern—every year between November and the following January, there’s always a wave of market gains, just with varying durations. The earliest started in late September 2009; the latest was in 2023, which didn’t start until February 2024, but there’s a hard rule: it always kicks off before the Spring Festival.

The driving forces behind this rally can be roughly divided into three groups:

The first is the “economic surprise” type. When year-end economic data defies pessimistic expectations and confidence in growth returns, pro-cyclical sectors naturally soar. This was the script in 2010-2011, 2016, and 2020, with cyclical stocks taking turns to shine.

The second is the “policy rescue” type. When policy direction suddenly shifts, or major stimulus is announced, sectors that directly benefit from these policies and high-risk preference targets are the first to take off. This script played out after the 2008-2009 financial crisis, and in 2012, 2014, 2018, and 2022, when market sentiment heated up from freezing point almost instantly.

The third is the “certainty safe haven.” After enough black swan events and with ample liquidity, capital prefers directions with solid earnings support or clear industry trends. This logic played out in 2013, 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2023-2024, with growth sectors often delivering independent rallies.

So during this time of year, understanding the catalysts is more important than blindly chasing gains—different drivers correspond to completely different paths to profit.