#美国经济数据 Seeing the news about the imminent change of the Fed chairman, many frens asked me how I view the interest rate trend for next year. To be frank, the market pricing is already quite clear — those expecting a significant rate cut may need to adjust their thoughts.

According to the reflection of interest rate futures, the room for rate cuts for the whole year next year is only about 75 basis points, basically three cuts of 25 basis points each. The more realistic situation is that two of these cuts are likely to be completed before Powell leaves, and the last one will be after the new chairman takes over. The logic behind this is not complicated: inflation is still hovering around 3%, and by then the real interest rate will be close to zero, indicating that monetary policy is actually quite loose.

What insights does this have for our asset allocation? I want to emphasize two points. First, don't be deceived by short-term policy expectation fluctuations. The market will repeatedly adjust expectations due to the selection of the chairman and statements, but what really matters are the fundamentals—the inflation level, economic conditions, and other hard indicators. Second, maintain good position management. Changes in the interest rate environment will affect the performance of different assets, and sufficient asset diversification and moderate risk exposure can help you smoothly navigate this phase of expectation changes.

In the long run, the market will ultimately return to rational pricing. Rather than frequently adjusting strategies, it is better to focus on understanding the deeper logic of the market.