#预测市场 The prediction market in December is playing out that old story again. Jumping from 30% to 40%, a seemingly simple ten percentage points, yet it condenses the repeated fluctuations of market sentiment. This reminds me of the end of 2017, when everyone was debating whether Bitcoin could break through $20,000. The prediction contracts back then also saw such ups and downs, and in the end, history has its own answers.

What does the data fluctuation of Polymarket essentially reflect? It reflects the continuous reassessment of reality by participants. The barrier of one hundred thousand dollars, from a 30% probability yesterday to a 40% today, indicates that new information, new funds, or new psychological consensus are flowing in. But also pay attention to that detail - the probability of falling below eighty thousand has decreased from 34% to 24%, which is not simply optimism, but the market is looking for a balance point.

I have seen such nodes too many times. The rebound in 2019, the madness in 2021, the bear market in 2022... Each data fluctuation seems crucial, but when viewed in the context of the entire cycle, these daily fluctuations are often just noise. What truly determines the direction is often the macro variables that are overlooked by most people.

When the predicted probabilities fluctuate wildly in a short period, it precisely indicates that the market is still hesitant. If there were truly a strong consensus direction, these numbers should be more resolute. Therefore, the current cautious sentiment is better described as rational waiting rather than pessimism—waiting for the next clear signal to emerge.