#宏观经济影响 Seeing this analysis of gray scale, I couldn't help but feel a sense of emotion. The "four-year cycle" that we are familiar with has finally become part of history.

Do you remember those years in 2013 and 2017? The halving events acted like a conductor's baton, influencing the pulse of the entire market. Each cycle repeats the same story: the frenzy of retail investors, the media's celebration, followed by a ruthless crash. Back then, Bitcoin's price trajectory resembled a curve driven by passion, with explosive rises and falls becoming the norm.

But now it's different. The influx of institutional funds has changed the rules of the game. They are not intimidated by the technical aspects of halving, nor will they flee in panic. When the "elephants" like interest rate expectations, macro policies, and regulatory attitudes enter the scene, the halving cycles that once dominated the market become increasingly insignificant. An institutional investor who has experienced decades of financial markets views Bitcoin in a completely different way compared to the passionate retail investors from back in the day.

The 30% pullback mentioned by Grayscale actually resembles a bull market correction—this judgment reflects a leap in market maturity. From speculation-driven to asset-driven, from cycle-driven to policy-driven, Bitcoin is completing its transformation from a fringe financial asset to a mainstream asset allocation.

What does this transition mean? The future of Bitcoin may no longer see those earth-shattering price surges and drops; instead, it will involve a more controllable and rational price discovery process. For those who are accustomed to dramatic fluctuations and hope for overnight riches, this may signify the end of an era. However, for those who have a long-term optimistic view of the market's development direction, this is precisely a sign of maturity and stability.

Only by reflecting on the past can people see the outline of the future more clearly.