#美联储政策 Seeing Hasset's remarks, what flashed through my mind was the debate in 2015. At that time, it was also a tug-of-war over the rate of interest rate cuts, with the market expecting 25 basis points, and the hawks insisting on holding steady. So what happened in the end? In early 2016, there was a circuit breaker, and then another round at the end of 2018. History does not repeat itself, but it always rhymes.

The current situation is interesting. On one side, there is pressure from the White House for an aggressive 50 basis point rate cut, while on the other side, the futures market is more cautiously expecting a 25 basis point cut—this kind of divergence has always signaled something in the past 10 years. From the Powell dilemma in 2019, the shift shock in 2022, to today, the political forces impacting the independence of the Federal Reserve are escalating.

The timeline of Hassett becoming chairman is also worth pondering. Officially taking office in May 2026 means that the next year and a half is a transition period, and the statements made in the first quarter of next year will determine how the market prices it. I have seen too many instances of "dovish first, then hawkish" reversals—initially, everything sounds fantastic, but when it comes time to act, various constraints emerge. The judgment on U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar moving "down first, then up" reminds me of those feints after 2008.

The key lies in the boundaries. As long as we do not cross the "loss of independence" red line, the market will mostly digest this policy expectation. But if it really starts aggressively at 50 basis points, how will history view this? The law of cycles is very cruel - every instance of excessive preemptive easing must pay a price later.