#美联储降息 Seeing this round of interest rate cuts, images from 2015 and 2020 flashed through my mind. History always repeats itself, only the participants change.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is set, and this matter itself is nothing new—the issue is that the market has already priced in this expectation. Interestingly, Bitcoin has instead found a foothold at the $80,000 threshold. The slope of the 200-day moving average has turned positive, and I've seen this signal more than once. It's always the same routine: first, panic selling creates a bottom, and then when the fundamentals improve, it rebounds. Those who scream at the bottom are often the ones who suffer the most from historical lessons.

Looking back, interest rate cuts are like a double-edged sword. During the interest rate cut cycle in 2015, Bitcoin consolidated at the bottom for more than a year; during the pandemic easing in 2020, excessive liquidity drove all assets to soar. The current situation is more complicated, as the structure of market participants has changed completely. There are more retail investors, institutions have entered, and the leverage ratio in the futures market has also changed.

What really deserves attention is the 52-week high barrier. What does breaking through it mean? From a cyclical perspective, this could confirm a new round of upward movement. But I have also seen too many false breakouts. The pullback range from 89,000 to 90,000 is the real touchstone—how many will be greedy at the bottom and how many will be timid in the face of resistance.

Lowering interest rates to release liquidity is a fact, but who gets this money and how assets are allocated will determine the real direction. Don't be blinded by short-term gains. Remember that wave at the end of 2017? All indicators were screaming bullish, and in the end, it turned around and fell for three years. How far this rebound can go depends on the real attitude of institutions, not on what we hope for.