#劳动力市场 Seeing the Fed's recent actions, I have mixed feelings. This is the third consecutive rate cut, totaling 75 basis points. On the surface, it appears to be a continuation of easing, but the two lonely numbers in the dot plot — one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027 — are the real signal. What does this indicate? It indicates that the Fed has reached the end of preventive rate cuts.

Do you remember that round in 2020? At that time, everyone thought liquidity would remain abundant, but what happened? Inflation came, followed by the aggressive interest rate hikes in 2022. History does not repeat itself, but it always has its rhymes. This time, Goldman Sachs' words hit hard – "The onus is now on labor market data to weaken further." From another perspective, it can be understood as: the story of interest rate cuts is over, and now it all depends on the state of the job market.

Recent data is actually speaking for itself. Labor cost growth has dropped to 3.5%, a four-year low; corporate layoffs have risen to the highest point since the beginning of 2023; and young people's salaries are still adjusting downwards. This seems beneficial for curbing inflation, but what lies behind it? It's a weakening of economic resilience. Look at the voluntary resignation rate, which has fallen to the lowest level since 2020—people are hesitant to change jobs, which shows a lack of confidence.

After Powell spoke, Bitcoin briefly broke 94,000, but then it fell back. The market's reaction was very honest. Everyone originally expected the easing to continue, but then found out that the Fed had actually pressed the pause button. Whether it will be a rate cut or further tightening in the future completely depends on whether the labor market can continue to "cool down." This uncertainty is the biggest risk for any asset allocation.

Cyclical, rotating through periods. From 2008 to 2020 and then to 2024, the Fed has oscillated between the extremes of policy each time. Will this time be different? It's hard to say. But it reminds me of an old saying - history repeats itself, but it never repeats exactly the same way. The key is to clearly understand the labor market as a crucial variable, as it will be the deciding factor for the direction in 2025.