Analysis: The community is cautiously bearish on the crypto market, with market interest shifting towards the metals market.

On December 26, Greeks.Live researcher Adam posted on social media that the community is cautiously bearish on the cryptocurrency market, with traders tending to sell option premiums rather than make directional bets. Key trading activity centered around the December 26 expiry price level of $88,770, with traders discussing the maximum pain point at $98,134. The probability model shows a 6-month outlook with a 2 standard deviation of -$17,000, and market interest is also shifting towards the metals market.
Options strategy shift - selling premiums in an uncertain market:
• Traders plan to implement bull spreads and naked put selling strategies, focusing on overall selling more call options while maintaining short-term call and put positions in specific ratios to capture premiums in a low-confidence environment;
• One trader executed an ETH short straddle with strike prices of 2750/3150, expiring on January 2, highlighting the challenge of overtrading during periods of low liquidity despite the advice to stay on the sidelines;
• A consensus is forming to avoid trading until next Monday, with traders recognizing that selling short-term bull spreads and long-term naked puts may be optimal, although some are considering shifting to a simple iron condor strategy given market uncertainty.