From betting on Trump to gambling on the NFL: Prediction markets to hit a record high in 2025

December 26, 2024, is predicted to be the hottest year in the history of prediction markets. With Polymarket and Kalshi emerging as industry leaders, this sector is experiencing a comprehensive surge in investment scale, media exposure, and valuation, gradually moving into mainstream visibility. As the 2026 US midterm elections approach, prediction markets are seen as a key scenario that could replicate the trading frenzy of the 2024 presidential election. The core question for the market is: can these platforms evolve from “traffic and topic-driven” to scalable prediction infrastructure? Capital is accelerating its entry, and valuations are rising rapidly: Kalshi completed a $1 billion funding round in November, reaching a valuation of $11 billion, led by Sequoia Capital and CapitalG; earlier in October, it raised $300 million in a Series D round, valuing the company at $5 billion. Polymarket: The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, ICE, invested $2 billion, and CEO Shayne Coplan disclosed the company’s valuation at approximately $9 billion. Analysts point out that the core value of prediction markets lies not in short-term revenue but in collective intelligence and globally distributed prediction data. Leo Chan, CEO of Sportstensor, stated that such data is equally valuable to financial institutions and non-trading users. During the 2024 US election, prediction market trading volume surged dramatically. According to Chainalysis, a major French Polymarket trader bet on Trump winning and profited $78.7 million. Moving into 2025, the two major platforms are accelerating business collaborations: Kalshi has partnered with CNBC and CNN, while Polymarket has teamed up with Yahoo Finance, UFC, and NHL, signing multi-year licensing agreements with both platforms. As the midterm elections approach, prediction markets are expected to usher in a new wave of explosive growth. However, the market consensus is that 2026 will be a watershed year for testing the long-term value of prediction markets: whether they can truly demonstrate their unique roles in information discovery, risk pricing, and decision support will determine whether this sector moves from a hype to maturity.