TRUMP Coin One-Year Anniversary: From the 8-Hour Myth of 20 Billion to a 90% Crash—How a Presidential Cryptocurrency Tears Open the Moral Black Hole of the Crypto World

On January 18, 2026, at 10:00 AM UTC+8, the clock hands sweep through this highly ironic moment. Exactly one year ago, Donald Trump typed on Truth Social the phrase that would change crypto history: "Time to celebrate our victory!" TRUMP Coin was born, with its market cap soaring past $1.5 billion within half an hour, skyrocketing to $20 billion in 8 hours, elevating the absurd concept of "presidential issuance" to divine status.
However, today, a year later, TRUMP Coin's price is fixed at $5.3, a 93% plunge from its peak of $77, and its Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) has shrunk from $77 billion to $5.3 billion. We are forced to confront the truth masked by FOMO: this is not financial innovation, but a social experiment of power and capital collusion—a stress test of the moral bottom line of the crypto world.
1. January 18, 2025: The Algorithm-Recorded Frenzy of 8 Hours
Every detail of that morning was permanently inscribed on the blockchain:
• 10:00: Trump officially announces on Truth Social, market cap instantly surges to $1 billion, community plunges into panic and division over "account hacking"
• 10:38: Price halves, market cap drops to $1.3 billion, early speculators bleed heavily
• 10:44: Turning point arrives. Trump’s X account repeatedly posts the same content, doubts dissipate, and the real slaughter begins—whales and bots flood in
• 11:22: Launches on Moonshot platform, FDV surpasses $4 billion
• 13:07: 3 hours, $10 billion; 4 hours, $13 billion; Binance forced to suspend withdrawals due to excessive SOL withdrawal volume
• 18:11: 8 hours, $20 billion; TRUMP ranks as the fourth-largest Meme coin by market cap, behind DOGE, SHIB, PEPE
The next day, the price hits the historic high of $77, with FDV reaching an astonishing $770 billion. This figure exceeds the market cap of over 400 companies in the S&P 500 at the time, an air project based solely on a "political symbol," valued higher than industrial giants like Boeing and Starbucks.
2. The "Arrogance" of Token Economics: 80% Control and Three-Year Unlock Scheme
The collapse of TRUMP Coin was scripted from its inception.
According to official and on-chain data, this "official Meme coin" model is a textbook example of "power rent-seeking":
• Total supply: 1 billion tokens
• Initial circulating supply: only 200 million (20%)
• Team holdings: Trump’s affiliated CIC Digital LLC and Fighter Fight LLC hold 80%, unlocked over three years
• Revenue source: transaction fees directly flow into companies related to Trump Group
What does this mean? It means the market prices the entire supply with 100% of the funds, based on only 20% circulating. When FDV hit $770 billion, the on-chain value of addresses linked to the Trump family reached $61.6 billion. Even more alarming, on January 17, 2026 (yesterday), 50 million tokens were unlocked, worth about $267 million, accounting for 24.964% of the circulating supply. This is a key driver of today’s price collapse to $5.3—unlocking equals dumping, and the game of monetizing power has never been so naked.
The New York Department of Financial Services once warned: "Meme coins are susceptible to manipulation by insiders." But when the target of such warnings is the most powerful president in the world, the regulatory voice seems so pale.
3. The Inevitable 90% Crash: From Political Premium to Value Reversion
The collapse of TRUMP Coin is not accidental but the result of resonance among three factors:
1. Narrative Fading: The Cruelty of Political Cycles
The core value of Meme coins is "narrative." When Trump issued the coin, it was during his "political honeymoon"—victory in the 2024 election, fervent crypto supporters, market expectations of policy dividends. But a year later, the "America First" crypto strategy gradually exposed its protectionist nature: domestic tokens supported by Trump (like RUSSIA, MELANIA) collapsed one after another; promises of Bitcoin reserves and regulatory easing failed to materialize. The political halo faded, and the project’s true face was revealed.
2. Unlock Pressure: The Damocles Sword Hanging Overhead
The three-year unlock plan is the biggest mystery. As each unlock date approaches, the market inevitably prices it in advance. The 50 million tokens unlocked on January 17, 2026, is just the beginning; another 650 million await release over the next two years. Holders are not HODLers but political machines needing liquidity. This continuous selling pressure makes any price rebound a window for profit-taking.
3. Hollow Ecosystem: A Castle in the Air Without Technology
Unlike DOGE (with payment scenarios) or SHIB (building the Shibarium ecosystem), TRUMP Coin is purely a political symbol speculative vehicle. The official website clearly states: "Not intended as an investment opportunity or security," yet it quickly lists on exchanges and attracts gamblers with 25x leverage contracts. When sentiment wanes, projects without technological moat inevitably return to zero.
4. Current Market Landscape: TRUMP Collapse and Signals of Decoupling from Mainstream Markets
Surprisingly, TRUMP Coin’s crash did not drag down the overall crypto market. On the contrary, mainstream assets showed resilience:
Bitcoin (BTC): Although not reaching new highs as expected, spot ETF inflows over the past five weeks totaled $6.63 billion, with institutional holdings rising from $54.77 billion to $102.09 billion since the start of the year. Exchange reserves fell to a three-year low of 12.3%, indicating long-term holder confidence remains.
Ethereum (ETH): Price at $1,788, ETH/BTC ratio rebounded above 0.019. Despite potential delays of the Pectra upgrade due to testnet vulnerabilities, Layer 2 ecosystems (MATIC, LINK) rose 3.5%-4.1%, indicating funds are shifting toward application layers.
Macro Environment: The Federal Reserve’s probability of rate cuts in June rose to 55.8%, but Trump’s tariff policies may trigger imported inflation, creating a zigzag pattern of "weak data → dovish expectations → policy disappointment." In this environment, crypto markets are decoupling from traditional equities—uncertainty in traditional finance drives capital toward "non-sovereign assets" for hedging.
Key Insight: The collapse of TRUMP Coin is an isolated case, not a systemic risk. It instead proves that the market is maturing: speculators are willing to pay for political hot topics, but mainstream capital prefers "hard assets" like BTC/ETH. This marks a watershed between emotion-driven and value-driven markets.
5. Strategic Operations: Seeking Certainty on the Ruins of "Political Meme"
For TRUMP Coin: stay away or short
• Conservative: absolute avoidance. Unlock pressure lasts until 2028; any rebound is a trap. Coinbase data shows current circulating supply of 200 million, total supply of 1 billion, with FDV five times the market cap, indicating overvaluation.
• Aggressive: small position short. Short in the $6-$6.5 range, with a stop-loss at $7.2 (recent high), target $3-$4. Pay attention to keep position within 5% of total funds to avoid sudden political events (like Trump’s retweet calls) causing liquidation.
Mainstream Asset Allocation: Spring Planting Time
Scenario A: Conservative (total 30%)
1. BTC: buy in batches at $105,000–$106,000, 15%, stop-loss at $102,000. Logic: ETF continuous net inflows + exchange reserves at a three-year low = supply tightening.
2. ETH: buy at $1,750–$1,770, 10%, stake on Lido for 4% APY. Pectra delay is negative sentiment, but technological upgrades will eventually land.
3. Stablecoins: 5% in USDC, earn 8-12% APY on Aave, waiting for black swan dips.
Scenario B: Aggressive (total 70%)
4. BTC futures: go long 3x leverage at $106,000 (confirmed MACD golden cross), 20%, stop-loss at $104,500, target $115,000.
5. ETH options: buy $1,850 call options (expiring end of February), premium 5%. Limited loss for breakout gains.
6. Altcoin hunting: 15% in Layer 2 leaders (OP, ARB), waiting for ETH/BTC to break above 0.02 to confirm alt season.
All-weather strategy: arbitrage on TRUMP volatility
• Cross-exchange arbitrage: TRUMP prices differ 1-3% between Binance, Coinbase, and DEXs, can be captured via bots. Beware of withdrawal delays.
• Volatility options trading: TRUMP options implied volatility (IV) reaches 200%, can sell out-of-the-money long-dated calls to earn premiums. Risk: political events may trigger violent surges.
6. Reflection on Values: The President’s Coin—The "Dutch Moment" of the Crypto World?
The rise and fall of TRUMP Coin is not just a market phenomenon but a crisis of crypto ideology.
A year ago, when Trump posted on Truth Social, the community doubted "account hacking"—this alone shows even the most fervent supporters don’t believe politicians will personally issue coins. The 10:44 X account confirmation, rather than dispelling doubts, shattered the veneer of "decentralization" in crypto.
Milton Friedman’s ghost lingers: he warned "inflation is a monetary phenomenon," but when the power to issue currency is personally controlled by the president, and $61.6 billion in on-chain value is concentrated in two LLCs, we face not just inflation but the personalization of sovereignty.
This fissure in the crypto community manifests as:
• Speculators: "Making money is king, presidential issuance is the biggest endorsement"
• Purists: "This is the 'Dutch Moment' in the on-chain world—political power invading will destroy decentralization"
• Establishment: "A regulatory arbitrage paradise, a hell of moral hazard"
In Washington’s "I Love DC Gifts" store, TRUMP memorabilia still sells well, but on-chain data tells no lies: the top 10 addresses control 91% of the circulating supply. This is not a community token but oligarch assets.
Conclusion: Rebuilding Faith from the Ruins or Embracing Nihilism?
One year after TRUMP Coin, what remains is not just the $5.3 price chart but a mirror: when the crypto market faces a dimensionality reduction attack from political power, do we stay true to Satoshi’s original "decentralization," or surrender to the speculative philosophy of "hotness equals justice"?
The answer may be in the wind, but operational strategies must be grounded.
Now, it’s your turn—
• Have you ever held TRUMP Coin? At what price did you enter and at what price did you sell?
• Does the president’s issuance make you more optimistic or pessimistic about the future of crypto?
• Who is the next politician likely to issue a coin? Are you ready for the "political black swan"?
• Between the "decentralization vision" and the "get-rich-quick myth," how do you choose?
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Remember: In the crypto world, the most expensive thing is not trading fees but blind faith in power narratives.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are high risk, and political Meme coins like TRUMP carry zeroing risks. Please do your own research and practice strict risk management.