【BTC/ETH Market Structure Deduction | Critical Test of the Trend Framework】

Core Logical Framework:
The current market is in a phase of testing the strength of the previous upward trend framework. Price action has shifted from an “all-time high” pattern to a “testing key support” pattern, focusing on verifying whether the foundation of this bull market remains solid. This is not a typical technical adjustment but a stress test on the long-term bullish and bearish beliefs.

BTC Structural Highlights:

1. Key Level: The $87,300-$92,000 zone forms a composite support band, including previous high platforms and long-term moving average clusters. This area is the macro watershed that determines whether the current rally is a “trend within correction” or a “trend termination.”
2. Bull-Bear Balance: The bullish logic relies on the inertia of the long-term trendline and historical demand validation in this zone; the bearish logic is based on the MACD death cross at high levels and the fact that prices have broken below the short-term trend structure.
3. Focus of Observation: The price reaction within this support band. Whether it rebounds quickly back above 92,000 or weakly oscillates and effectively breaks below 87,300 will decide the mid-term market narrative.

ETH Structural Highlights:

1. Trend Evolution: The price has confirmed a break below the mid-term trend lines (MA30/MA50) and the psychological level of 3000, shifting from “strong oscillation” to “clear decline” structurally.
2. Phase Positioning: The market is in a phase of releasing downward momentum and seeking the next value equilibrium point. The $2900-$2623 zone is the next target for bears and a tactical defensive position for bulls.
3. Sentiment Observation: ETH’s weakness has transcended technical scope, reflecting a market re-evaluation of the risks associated with overvalued assets. Whether it can stabilize depends partly on whether BTC can hold steady at the key support zone, forming a linked support.

Comprehensive Deduction:
The market is in a binary structure where BTC defines the direction, and ETH reflects the strength or weakness of sentiment. If BTC can successfully build a defense above 87,300, ETH is likely to enter a low-volatility oscillation phase, and the market will shift into a complex recovery stage of “time-for-space.” If BTC loses the critical support, ETH’s downside potential will open up simultaneously, possibly leading to a new cycle of liquidity contraction and panic release.

The current strategy should focus on observation rather than prediction, mainly tracking volume changes and long/short position ratios at each asset’s key levels to capture the formation of market consensus. #Gate每10分钟送1克黄金