Crucial macro signals in crypto to watch out for: the buyer-gold dynamics

The copper-to-gold ratio has once again come into focus as one of the most reliable macro indicators for the cryptocurrency market. This ratio between two of the world’s most sensitive commodities provides insight into investors’ risk sentiment and can offer crucial clues about the future of Bitcoin and other digital assets in 2026.

The ratio represents a fundamental distinction: copper is strongly linked to industrial demand and growth, while gold serves as a defensive asset providing protection during uncertain periods. When copper outperforms gold, it indicates a “risk-on” environment where investors are more willing to deploy speculative capital. Conversely, a declining ratio points to caution and defensive positioning.

The breaking point of years of decline

Recent months have marked a truly remarkable turning point. After years of gradual decline, the copper-gold ratio has now broken through a critical level. The ratio is currently around 0.00136, after hitting a low of 0.00116 in October. At the same time, both commodities are reaching record levels: copper trades above $6 per pound, while gold is around $4,455 per ounce.

Over the past three months, copper prices have increased by 18%, significantly outpacing gold’s 14%, reflecting the growing risk appetite in markets. This pattern echoes historical parallels with previous crypto bull markets. Bitcoin is currently trading at $89.95K, and the question is what significance this commodity ratio holds in relation to that.

Historical repetitions: when ratios lead rallies

The correlation between the copper-gold ratio and major Bitcoin rallies is no coincidence. Peaks in this ratio in 2013, 2017, and 2021 closely coincided with the highs of Bitcoin price cycles. These moments reflected strong global growth expectations and increased speculative risk appetite across all asset classes.

Even more important for crypto investors is what happens after prolonged declines. Historically, a reversal in the ratio has often preceded significant Bitcoin rallies, especially when coinciding with Bitcoin halving cycles. The halving in April 2024, which reduced the miner reward by 50%, tightened the supply. These events act as catalysts for prolonged bull markets due to the limited supply of new bitcoins.

The halving signal and future opportunities

During the fourth halving in 2024, the ratio continued to decline—an anomaly that has now been reversed. This turning point in 2026 coincides with strengthening copper prices and may indicate a shift from supply constraints to genuine growth momentum. If copper strength indeed reflects growth expectations rather than merely supply issues, the resulting risk-on signal could support a Bitcoin rally into 2026.

Volatility and liquidation risks

Despite these positive macro signals, the current market climate reminds investors of the risks associated with excessive leverage. Over the past period, more than $625 million in crypto positions have been liquidated within 24 hours, with losses evenly split between long and short positions. Hyperliquid experienced the largest damage, with liquidations totaling approximately $220.8 million, mainly from short positions hit by price recovery.

These liquidation waves were driven by macro uncertainty surrounding US trade policies, volatility in bond markets, and geopolitical expectations. The impact of these events on futures and derivatives markets underscores how cautious investors need to be, even when macro signals seem favorable.

Crypto to watch: a complex picture

The outlook for crypto in 2026 is thus layered. On one hand, the break in the copper-gold ratio and the historical parallels with previous bull cycles suggest that risk assets may increase. On the other hand, liquidation patterns warn of volatility and leverage risks that can arise in turbulent macro environments.

For those monitoring crypto, it is essential to place these macro signals in context. The copper-gold dynamics are just one piece of a larger puzzle. Investors should consider both the potential upside of risk-on environments and the real losses from overleveraged positions in volatile markets.