Crossing the "$90,000 Gravitational Field": 2026 Year-End Deep Review and Practical Roadmap for the Crypto Market

Bitcoin repeatedly "tests the top" around $91,000, Ethereum's $3,000 threshold fluctuates sharply, while gold quietly reaches four times its pre-millennium high. When macro liquidity, regulatory expectations, and on-chain chip structures simultaneously reach critical points, a bet on "new highs or double tops" becomes unavoidable. This article combines the latest order book data, policy developments, and on-chain indicators as of January 24 to provide actionable position management and hedging strategies, helping traders stabilize positions and amplify risk-reward in a high-volatility, high-narrative, and crowded "three-high" market.

I. Macro: The Fed's "Three-piece Suit" Upgraded Again, Weakening the Dollar Opens the Risk Asset Ceiling

In December 2025, the FOMC quietly removed the daily $50 billion cap on the Standing Repo Facility (SRP), allowing banks to exchange unlimited government bonds with the Fed for liquidity. This change caused the reverse repo balance to plummet from $2.1 trillion to $1.3 trillion, effectively injecting about $800 billion into the system's "dark pool." The USD DXY retreated 3% from its high of 105, gold broke through $4,090 per ounce, and Bitcoin benefited simultaneously, with spot ETF inflows totaling $6.63 billion over the past five weeks, and BlackRock's crypto assets surpassing $1 trillion. Liquidity gates are open, but the market hasn't surged in a straight line because, although there is plenty of money, confidence remains constrained by regulatory pace.

II. Order Book: Bitcoin at $91,000 Becomes a "Gravitational Zone," ETH at $3,000 Shows Volatility Extremes

Glassnode data shows that the $91,000–$95,000 range coincides with the short-term holder cost basis and the 111-day moving average, with accumulated chips accounting for 18.4% of circulating supply, forming the largest "airborne platform" in history. Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has tested $95K four times, each encounter met with $250–$350 million per hour of sell orders. After active short covering, rapid re-accumulation indicates programmatic funds are harvesting in "false breakouts."

For Ethereum, the ETH/BTC rate fell to a historic low of 0.031, but implied volatility in options rose to an annualized 90%, reaching a high since May 2022. The market consensus is "unclear direction but large volatility ahead." Pectra's upgrade testnet vulnerability delayed mainnet launch to Q3, staking APR dropped to 2.7%, triggering liquidation of 67,500 ETH whales' on-chain positions. Although the price returned to $3,000, on-chain TVL is only $46.7 billion, down 42% from its peak, and the "volume-price divergence" in the ecosystem hints that leverage has yet to be fully cleared.

III. Sentiment: Bitcoin's "Vampiric" and "Regulatory ICO" Narratives Coexist, Funds Clustered vs. Risk Appetite Rising

CoinMarketCap data shows Bitcoin's market cap share rising to 64.3%, a peak since April 2021; meanwhile, stablecoin supply increased by $12 billion over four weeks, with USDT's average on-chain transfer size rising to $48,000, indicating "whale" accumulation is intensifying.

On the other hand, Coinbase launched a compliant ICO platform; its first project, Monad, surged 6x within five minutes of opening, with $2.8 billion traded in 24 hours, becoming the brightest "wealth effect" of 2025. Bitwise CIO predicts over 10 compliant ICOs with market caps exceeding $1 billion could debut in 2026, replicating the 2017 "Ethereum moment." The market is entering a "value-preserving old coins, new coins emerging" phase, with funds fearing missing out on the main Bitcoin rally or the next 100X, leading to a split scene of "Bitcoin vampirism" and "altcoin FOMO."

IV. On-Chain: Miner Halving Pressure Eases, MSTR Lock-in Effect Strengthens Supply-Side Narrative

Post-halving, miner block rewards decreased from 900 to 450 BTC per block. On-chain data shows miner wallet balances increased by 12,000 BTC over 30 days, defying the usual "sell-off after halving." Meanwhile, MicroStrategy transferred 58,400 BTC into Fidelity custody over the past two months and announced an additional $7 billion refinancing in 2026 to continue buying Bitcoin, effectively locking in future miner output for the next eight months. The "dual gate" on supply creates expectations of "bullet flying for a while," bolstering confidence for Bitcoin to reach $100,000.

V. Strategy: Three-Stage Attack and Defense Map — Spot Anchor, Volatility Position, Hedging Network

1. Spot Anchor (40%)

Logic: Halving + ETF inflows + SRP cap removal constitute a 18-month supply contraction.

Levels: Gradually add positions in the $85,000–$88,000 range, with a stop-loss at $75,000 (corresponding to the platform launched in August 2025), target $120,000–$150,000.

2. Volatility Position (30%)

Logic: The $91,000–$95,000 zone is a "high volatility attractor," suitable for repeated buy low, sell high.

Method: Buy on 4-hour close above $95,000, stop-loss at $92,000, target $102,000; if resistance occurs at $94,500, reverse to short with stop at $96,500, target $88,000.

3. Hedging Network (30%)

① Short ETH/BTC: Short near 0.032, target 0.027, to hedge against BTC stagnation or altcoin crashes;

② Buy $80,000 strike put options expiring at the end of March, premium 2.1%, as insurance for spot positions;

③ Focus on compliant ICO launches, with single positions not exceeding 2% of total funds, using profits to strengthen the spot safety cushion.

VI. Risk Checklist: Three "Black Swans" and Two "Gray Rhinos"

Black Swans:

A. US 401(k) plan suddenly suspends crypto asset allocation channels;

B. Major exchanges face collective legal actions, causing USD fiat channels to freeze;

C. Ethereum mainnet upgrade encounters major vulnerabilities again, triggering DeFi liquidations.

Gray Rhinos:

X. USD index rebounds to 110, causing a 15%–20% pullback in global risk assets;

Y. Bitcoin hash rate drops 30% due to energy regulation, network congestion raises on-chain transfer costs, weakening the "digital gold" narrative.

VII. Timeline: 5 Critical Windows in the Next 60 Days

Jan 29: Federal Reserve rate decision — watch for hints of a rate cut in March;

Feb 6: US January CPI — if above 3.0%, rising US Treasury yields will suppress BTC;

Feb 14: Ethereum Zhejiang testnet second fork — determines if Pectra can launch in Q3;

Feb 20: Trump’s State of the Union — may announce new digital asset executive orders;

Mar 1: Hong Kong spot BTC, ETH ETF subscription opens — can Asian funds follow US stocks?

Conclusion: Save "new highs" for sentiment, and "pullbacks" for planning

The market will always reward those who pre-hedge risks with options rather than FOMO at breakout points. As the $100,000 mark becomes louder, the real opponent is no longer the trend but your own position and heartbeat. If you are standing before the $91,000 gravitational zone, consider drawing the three-stage attack and defense map into your trading journal, then press "confirm."

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4. Do you think BTC will hit $100,000 first or retest $85,000?

5. Do you prefer the next miracle of "Vampiric Bitcoin" or "Regulatory ICO"?

6. How are your holdings distributed among spot, leverage, and options?

Leave your operation points and logic in the comments, and let’s find the market’s answer together!