Black Swan Arrives? BlackRock Exec Could Lead the Fed, Cryptocurrency Market Faces Historic Turning Point

An "earthquake" in personnel that could reshape the global financial landscape is brewing.

According to Polymarket prediction markets, the probability of Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair has surged to 58%, a remarkable jump from 6% just a few days ago. It’s important to note that such a high probability in prediction markets often indicates a near certainty—the market almost considers this scenario as a baseline, viewing this Wall Street giant’s leadership of the world’s most important central bank as a foregone conclusion.

Wall Street "Wolf King" Takes Over the Fed: A Silent Financial Revolution

Who is Rick Rieder? This "Bond King," overseeing BlackRock’s $2.4 trillion bond strategy, is making history. Unlike previous Fed chairs, Rieder is not an academic or traditional central banker but a seasoned market practitioner with decades of asset management experience. From twenty years at Lehman Brothers to leading R3 Capital Partners into BlackRock in 2009, he has witnessed countless market storms.

President Trump’s "impressive" praise at the Davos Forum is no mere politeness. During multiple interviews hosted by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Rieder demonstrated an open attitude toward Fed reforms, especially supporting rate cuts, aligning with the Trump administration’s preferences. It is reported that during their first meeting in September last year, they discussed in depth the direction of monetary policy and structural reforms at the Fed.

The "Perfect Storm" in Cryptocurrency Market Is Forming

Currently, Bitcoin fluctuates between $88,000 and $90,000, with a decline of over 7% this week. However, behind this seemingly weak market performance, a larger upheaval is quietly brewing.

Historical experience shows that turning points in Fed policy often serve as launchpads for cryptocurrency markets. After the Fed cut rates to zero and launched quantitative easing in 2020, Bitcoin skyrocketed from $5,000 to $65,000, a more than 12-fold increase. Today, a similar script appears to be rewriting itself.

Rieder’s background as "Bond King" suggests he has a far deeper understanding of market liquidity than traditional central bankers. Under his leadership, the Fed might focus more on market mechanisms and debt sustainability—an unmissable boost for the still early-stage crypto market.

The Deep Logic Behind Market Bets: The Oracle of Decentralized Prediction

The 58% probability on Polymarket is no coincidence. This blockchain-based decentralized prediction market is becoming a "digital oracle" for insights into future policy directions. When market participants bet with real money, they are not just gambling—they are collectively mining information through collective intelligence.

It’s worth noting that this expectation is already heavily priced in. If the final candidate unexpectedly reverses—say Trump chooses Kevin Woor—markets could face sharp re-pricing. Such volatility would not only impact prediction markets but could spill over into the entire risk asset sphere.

Historic Opportunity or Century Trap? Investors at a Crossroads

For crypto investors, a key question arises: Is now the perfect time to deploy, or is it just calm before the storm?

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin faces strong resistance around $91,000, requiring sustained momentum to break through effectively. Ethereum’s $3,000 level is a critical psychological threshold, with volatility more pronounced than Bitcoin’s. From August 2024’s $61,000 to early 2025-2026 trends, a macro bull cycle foundation is being built.

But the real opportunity may lie in structural reforms. Rieder’s leadership at the Fed could bring unprecedented policy transparency and predictability, significantly reducing market uncertainty premiums. As previously analyzed, a strategy of using gold as a risk hedge with 30%-40% allocation, and the remaining funds deployed into Bitcoin and quality mainstream coins, could achieve better risk-adjusted returns in this policy environment.

Calm Reflection in the Eye of the Storm: Wisdom Beyond Short-term Bets

Nevertheless, amidst the celebration, calmness is essential. Over the past five weeks, spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows reached $6.63 billion, and BlackRock’s crypto portfolio has soared from $54.77 billion at the start of the year to $102.09 billion. Behind these figures are institutional FOMO (fear of missing out) and early positioning for policy dividends.

True investment wisdom lies in transcending bets on individual candidates and focusing on more fundamental structural trends. Regardless of who ultimately leads the Fed, a more market-friendly, clearer policy path will create a favorable environment for the long-term development of the crypto market.

The Turning Point in History: Are You Ready?

As I write this, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen confirms that Trump "may announce the new Fed Chair as early as next week." This means we are on the eve of a historic turning point.

A question for every reader: When Wall Street’s "Wolf King" might take over the Fed, when the boundaries between traditional finance and crypto blur, and when decentralized prediction markets become policy indicators—are your investment portfolios ready?

This is not just a guessing game about the Fed Chair candidate but a reshaping of the future financial landscape. In this era of uncertainty, the only certainty is change itself.

Do you think Rieder will ultimately lead the Fed? How will this impact the crypto market? Share your thoughts in the comments, and let’s witness this historic moment together!

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry high risks; please make decisions cautiously based on your own circumstances.