#StrategyBitcoinPositionTurnsRed

As of today, with the Bitcoin price slipping below the $76,000 mark, the massive position of Strategy—the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder—has officially entered "unrealized loss" territory on paper.
​Cost Threshold: Strategy in the Red
​Following the company's most recent acquisitions, its updated average cost was calculated at $76,052. With prices retreating to the $74,500 - $75,500 range today, this multi-billion dollar position has officially turned "red."
​Massive Holdings: Strategy currently holds approximately 713,502 BTC. While the total cost of this portfolio stands at $54.2 billion, its current market value has now dipped below this acquisition floor.
​What Drove the Market to This Point?
​This decline, which began in late January and deepened during the first days of February, is the result of several converging factors:
​The Fed Shock (The Warsh Effect): Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair on January 30th triggered liquidity fears across markets. Warsh’s "hawkish" reputation (favouring tighter monetary policy) strengthened the dollar and led to a flight from risk assets, including Bitcoin.
​The Safe Haven Illusion: Rising military tensions between the U.S. and Iran failed to propel Bitcoin as "digital gold," contrary to expectations. Instead, as investors rushed to raise cash, they offloaded their most liquid assets, causing Bitcoin to plummet alongside equities.
​Liquidation Chain: Over $2.5 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated over the weekend. This created a mechanical downward pressure, forcing prices even lower.
​Analysis: A Crossroads for Saylor?
​Despite the panic in the air, signals from the Strategy camp suggest that no "margin call" or forced sale is on the horizon. Since the company’s Bitcoin holdings are not pledged as collateral, the risk of insolvency remains off the table for now. However, the real issue is strategic:
​Vanishing Equity Premium: Strategy shares are trading nearly 70% below their peak. This significantly weakens the company’s ability to issue new equity to fund further Bitcoin purchases—the so-called "infinite capital loop."
​Institutional Conviction Test: Persistent outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs indicate that the "HODL" strategy among institutional investors is beginning to fracture.
​Conclusion
​Today, February 3, 2026, may go down in history as "The Day Institutional Patience Was Tested." Even though the Bitcoin price remains below cost, Michael Saylor’s mantra of "buying a 100-year asset" is facing its toughest trial yet. For investors, the question is no longer "How low will Bitcoin go?" but rather "How long can Strategy keep this position underwater?"