#当前行情抄底还是观望？ Market sharply declines again｜BTC drops below 61,000, ETH loses the 1800 level. Today (February 6, 2026), the cryptocurrency market continues its plunge, marking the most severe short-term decline since 2024. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) both break through key support levels, and the futures liquidation wave continues to ferment, pushing market panic to its extreme. This article combines the latest market data, technical signals, and macroeconomic bearish logic to analyze today's core market movements, key levels, and practical strategies for contract traders. We reject vague statements and focus entirely on practical needs.

1. Today’s Core Market Overview (as of 11:30 AM on February 6) The market continues the sharp decline from February 5, with a rapid plunge at the opening, leading to a broad sell-off across mainstream coins. Systemic risk continues to release. Key data are as follows:
Bitcoin (BTC): Intraday decline exceeds 10%, with a low of approximately $62,333. As of press time, it’s around $60,500. The decline from the October 2025 all-time high ($126,000) exceeds 50%. 24-hour drop exceeds 10%, hitting a new low since mid-2024. Daily volatility exceeds $8,000, and volatility spikes.
Ethereum (ETH): Weaker than BTC, with nearly 9% decline intraday, dropping close to $1,800. As of press time, about $1,836. The correction from the 2025 high is nearly 65%. Price has moved far away from all major moving averages, showing a pure downtrend. Daily volatility exceeds $300. Futures market dynamics: The plunge triggers massive leverage liquidations, with over 210,000 traders globally liquidated in the past 24 hours, with total liquidation reaching up to $2.561 billion. Long positions account for over 90% of liquidations, as many blindly bottom-fished with high leverage, leading to forced liquidations and further selling pressure.
Market sentiment: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 12, in the “Extreme Fear” zone, the lowest since November 2024. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to see net outflows, with nearly $2 billion flowing out from February 1 to 4, indicating significant institutional capital withdrawal, further dampening market confidence.
Additional: In the US stock market, crypto-related ETFs also plummeted. The ProShares Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) closed down 13.81% yesterday, and iShares Ethereum ETF (ETHA) down 13.95%. Over the past three months, both have fallen nearly 48%, reflecting ongoing institutional pessimism toward the crypto market.
2. Macro Environment Analysis: Multiple bearish factors resonate, and the downward logic remains unchanged. Today’s decline is not isolated but results from macro policies, regulatory environment, market structure, and geopolitical risks, which are also continuations of previous downward trends. The core bearish factors are as follows, directly influencing short-term market direction:
1. Fed Policy Shift Expectations (Main Trigger) Former Fed Governor and hawkish monetary policy advocate Kevin Warsh, nominated by President Trump, is suggested as the next Fed Chair, sparking strong concerns about liquidity tightening. Warsh explicitly opposes quantitative easing and emphasizes the importance of “real interest rates.” Markets broadly expect that he will implement tightening policies, including maintaining high interest rates and shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet. As risk assets, cryptocurrencies rely on loose liquidity for growth; expectations of liquidity tightening directly undermine their valuation basis. Analysis shows that each 1% reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet correlates with an average 2.1% decline in total crypto market cap. A 15-20% reduction over the next two years could shrink the crypto market cap by 25-30%, suppressing the market for the long term.
2. Institutional Capital Exit & ETF Reversal Since the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in January 2024, there has been a reversal in fund flows, with a large-scale net outflow for the first time. On February 4, a single-day net outflow of $544 million occurred, with over $2 billion outflow since February. Major ETFs from BlackRock, Fidelity, and others are impacted. Profit-taking and risk aversion lead to a loss of core support. On-chain data shows that over the past 30 days, long-term holders sell an average of more than 12,000 BTC daily, totaling about 370,000 BTC monthly, creating persistent selling pressure and further depressing prices.
3. Regulatory Uncertainty & Geopolitical Risks Rising Regulatory uncertainty: US “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act” faces setbacks in the Senate, with the probability of passage dropping from 80% at the start of the year to 50%. Lack of clear regulation deters institutional participation. Hong Kong’s new crypto capital rules from 2026 will raise the risk weight of uncollateralized assets like Bitcoin to 1250%, significantly raising banks’ participation thresholds, blocking traditional capital inflows. Geopolitical tensions: US-Iran tensions escalate, with US deploying naval forces to the Middle East. Rumors of attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities increase. Geopolitical uncertainty boosts demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold, but Bitcoin’s narrative as “digital gold” weakens. Its high-risk nature leads to sell-offs, creating a “liquidity black hole,” with the crypto market bearing the brunt.
4. Imbalanced High-Leverage Market Structure Before the plunge, open interest in crypto contracts reached $7.8 billion. Many investors used high leverage to chase gains, resulting in elevated leverage ratios. When prices break key support levels, chain reactions of liquidations occur, forming a “downward—liquidation—further decline” vicious cycle. In a liquidity-scarce environment, this amplifies declines and is a key driver of today’s sharp drop.
3. Deep Technical Analysis (BTC/ETH Multi-Cycle Linkage) From a technical perspective, BTC and ETH have both formed clear bearish alignments, with key support levels repeatedly broken. No obvious signs of stabilization are present in the short term. The core signals across different cycles are as follows:
1. Bitcoin (BTC) Daily Chart: Consecutive red candles over multiple days. After breaking below the previous consolidation zone at $74,000, the price accelerates downward. It has now fallen below $65,000, the last defense line of the bull run. MACD remains bearish with increasing green bars. RSI drops below 30, entering oversold territory, but strong bearish momentum suggests continued weakness, with no rebound signs. Four-hour chart: All moving averages are in a bearish alignment, with price trending below the 5-day MA. Bollinger Bands are wide open, with price below the lower band. KDJ indicator is low and flat, indicating ongoing downward momentum. No clear support below; the previous low near $60,000 is a reference point. One-hour chart: After an early sharp decline, a minor rebound occurs but is weak, unable to break above $63,000 resistance. Volume diminishes during the rebound, indicating insufficient bullish strength. Further decline is possible. Short-term resistance is around $63,000–$65,000.
2. Ethereum (ETH) Daily Chart: After breaking below $2,200 and the previous consolidation zone at $2,280–$2,350, it continues downward, now losing the critical $1,800 level. Price is far from all major moving averages. MACD green bars expand, confirming a clear bearish trend. ETH is weaker than BTC, with its medium-term bullish structure thoroughly broken, entering a deep correction phase. Four-hour chart: Bollinger Bands point downward, with price running along the lower band. RSI near 25, indicating high oversold levels, more extreme than BTC. Bearish pressure is very strong, with weak rebounds. Support levels are around $1,700–$1,800; breaking below could lead to further decline toward $1,600. One-hour chart: After a sharp drop, a rebound failed to break above $1,900. Volume continues to decline, showing market exhaustion. Short-term rebounds are unlikely to sustain. Resistance is around $1,900–$2,000. Reaching this zone could be an opportunity to establish short positions (with strict stop-loss).
4. Practical Contract Trading Strategies (BTC/ETH Precise Layout, Strict Risk Control) Core Principles: The current market is in “Extreme Fear,” with a clear bearish trend. Leverage contracts should focus on “high short positions and shorting rebounds.” Absolutely avoid bottom-fishing. Strictly control position sizes and stop-losses. Specific strategies are divided for BTC and ETH, tailored to different risk preferences:
1. Bitcoin (BTC) Contract Strategy: Short positions: Enter short trades in the $63,000–$65,000 range, with a stop-loss at $66,500 (below recent short-term support, confirming failure of rebound). Target $60,000; if broken, reduce positions and hold, aiming for around $58,000 (do not chase shorts, only short after rebounds). Long positions: Not recommended today! Even if price stabilizes near $60,000, only small positions (no more than 5% of total capital) can be used to attempt a rebound, with a stop-loss at $59,000 and target $62,000–$63,000. Take profits promptly; avoid holding long positions in a bearish trend.
2. Ethereum (ETH) Contract Strategy: Short positions: Enter short trades in the $1,900–$2,000 range, with a stop-loss at $2,080 (above yesterday’s low, confirming rebound failure). Target $1,750–$1,800; if broken, reduce positions and hold, aiming for around $1,700. Long positions: Not recommended today. If price stabilizes near $1,700, small long positions (no more than 5%) can be attempted with a stop-loss at $1,650 and target $1,850–$1,900. Strictly execute stop-loss; avoid long holding.
3. General Risk Control Rules (Must Read): The market volatility is extremely high, with significant liquidation risks. All strategies must strictly follow these risk rules, or losses are likely:
Position Control: No more than 10% of total capital in a single contract; total across multiple contracts no more than 15%. Avoid high leverage (recommend no more than 5x) to prevent liquidation risks. Stop-Loss Execution: All trades must have stop-loss orders; do not modify stop-losses arbitrarily. Once triggered, exit immediately. Do not hold through losses (current bearish trend). Mental Discipline: Avoid “bottom-fishing” mentality. The bearish trend is clear; no bottom is in sight. Rebounds are not reversals. Do not blindly add to positions. Also, avoid chasing shorts; only short after rebounds to reduce risk.
5. Key Focus & Market Outlook
1. Key Levels to Watch (Critical Support/Resistance) BTC: Support at $60,000 (psychological support; breaking below triggers further decline). Resistance at $63,000–$65,000 (short-term rebound resistance; difficult to break). ETH: Support at $1,700 (important support; breaking below targets $1,600). Resistance at $1,900–$2,000 (short-term rebound resistance; difficult to break).
2. Market Outlook: In the short term, bearish momentum remains, and panic sentiment has not eased. BTC and ETH are likely to continue weak declines or consolidate sideways. No clear reversal signals are present. Expect repeated tests of support at current lows, with limited rebound strength. Do not be overly optimistic. In the medium term, if the Fed’s policy shift expectations do not change, institutional withdrawals continue, and regulatory uncertainties persist, the crypto market may continue deep corrections. BTC could drop to $58,000–$60,000, ETH to around $1,600. Only positive signals like regulatory easing, Fed policy loosening, or institutional inflows could trigger a phase rebound, but the rebound space will be limited, unlikely to change the overall weak medium-term trend.
6. Important Risk Warnings
1. Cryptocurrency contract trading is high-risk investment; leverage amplifies gains and losses. The strategies here are for market analysis only and do not constitute investment advice. Trade at your own risk. 2. The market is currently in extreme panic, with high volatility. Do not blindly bottom-fish, hold through losses, or increase leverage to avoid large liquidations. Protect your principal first. 3. Closely monitor Fed policy developments, ETF fund flows, and regulatory progress. Any sudden news can cause sharp market swings. Adjust trading strategies promptly and respond flexibly. 4. New traders are advised to pause operations today, observe the market, and only re-enter when the trend becomes clearer to avoid losses caused by excessive volatility.