#币圈生存指南

After waiting for two days, Bitcoin finally rebounded, reclaiming the 60,000 and 70,000 levels in one go. The more it dips, the more I buy, and the strategy of lying flat has finally shown some results. However, it cannot be denied that Bitcoin is still in a bear market. Veteran investors know that the most important thing in a bear market is to survive, so today let's talk about survival rules in the crypto bear market.

👉 Rule 1: Short contracts at high levels, go long on spot at low levels, never chase longs or shorts

"Sell high, buy low" may sound like a cliché, but it is truly the golden rule in a bear market. If we are in a bull market, and you ask me what the key to profit is, I would say two words: "Don't sell." But in a bear market, sticking to this can be a mental and emotional torment for those who haven't held long-term. Waking up every day to see your assets rapidly shrink or even get liquidated on long positions feels like hell.

The current bull-bear dividing line in this bear market is around 98,000. As long as this level is not broken, the market remains bearish. Any rally to a high point is an opportunity to short. Even if you are a long-term spot holder, you can short at high levels to hedge risks. As for the leverage ratio on short contracts, it should be based on your purpose for shorting and your capital situation. But never chase shorts at low levels—that's another golden rule.

When the bear market falls to a certain level, some will want to buy the dip and catch a rebound. This is acceptable, as Bitcoin tends to spiral upward over the long term, and the next bull market will come sooner or later. But it's best to use spot buying to bottom out because you can't be sure how much further the decline will go. In this recent drop, I tried to buy a rebound contract at the 70,000 level, but ultimately the price fell to 59,900, and I was forced to cut losses and lose money.

👉 Rule 2: When facing significant retracements, the top priorities are maintaining a "bottom-fishing" and "holding" mindset

Looking back at history, whether it was $3,194 in 2019 or $15,500 in 2022, every bear market has had its "darkest hour," but they are always followed by dawn. The idea that "bear short, bull long" has become a common consensus in the crypto community. So every big dip is an opportunity to buy the dip and add to your positions. If you're already "on the train" and your account has shrunk significantly due to a retracement, "holding" is your best choice. If you really can't bear it anymore, turn off your phone and check your account after some time—you might be surprised.

👉 Rule 3: Market swings wildly, focus more on technical indicators, reduce trading frequency, and avoid chasing longs or shorts to overcome "emotional trading"

Recently, market volatility has been quite high, with 10% swings in Bitcoin becoming common. In the face of increased volatility, it's easy to chase the rally or sell in panic. During such times, looking at technical indicators may help calm your restless mind—using resistance levels to short, and avoiding chasing either longs or shorts. Also, reduce your trading frequency; set a limit of a few trades per day to prevent emotional breakdowns caused by market fluctuations, and avoid falling into emotional trading traps.

📈 Lastly, let's share our outlook for the next two days. There has already been a violent rebound on Friday and Saturday. I expect Sunday to remain volatile, with a focus on early next week. I believe the market will decline gradually, but the 59,900 level is already a stage bottom.

1. From a technical perspective, on the 4-hour chart, the market rebounded to the middle of the Bollinger Bands but faced clear resistance. The Bollinger Bands are starting to contract, indicating another decline is likely. On the daily chart, the price is clearly suppressed by the MA5 moving average. After a large bullish candle on Friday, a correction is needed. The MACD fast and slow lines are below zero and converging, with the red momentum bars nearly disappearing, indicating that bullish momentum is weakening and bears have the upper hand. If the DIF line cannot cross above the DEA line and turn red with volume, the trend remains bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the middle, not entering overbought or oversold zones, suggesting a balanced market. On the weekly chart, a long lower shadow indicates a potential bottom, but the price has not broken through the lower Bollinger Band, so early next week may still face a pullback.

2. From a news perspective, the Iran situation is affecting global nerves. Israel claims it is ready to strike Iran, and if the situation worsens, it could pressure Bitcoin prices. Additionally, next week the US will release key data for January, including Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI, which will significantly influence market direction. Stay tuned!