BTC ends this week again at a lower price, confirming its current macro downtrend. We discussed the macro structure at last week's monthly close, and since then, we saw a strong sell-off in the market, which I mainly attribute to the confirmation of the negative macro downtrend. Fortunately, we identified this trend change weeks ago when BTC lost the 3-year diagonal trendline and closed weekly below 100K.

Looking ahead, I expect this downtrend to continue. However, I do not anticipate the formation of a macro structure like the past 3 years, as cryptocurrency downtrends are usually more aggressive, leading to rapid price declines and multiple bearish rebounds along the way. It will not form a clean macro range. I expect some kind of short-term range to develop in the coming weeks, within which we will gradually take profit and close positions.

This includes potential bearish rebounds between 72K and 80K(72K has been completed), followed by further declines toward lower levels, gradually approaching our long-term accumulation zone. Without a macro structure recovery, it’s difficult to talk about higher levels in the short term. In my view, it’s not impossible for similar events to occur again within the medium term, and BTC could drop 30%-40% in a very short period.

If such a scenario occurs, we will begin the first phase of our long-term spot accumulation, as BTC will have fallen 65%-70% from its all-time high, a level considered undervalued. I expect that after this happens, BTC will enter a final accumulation zone sometime this year, forming a macro bottom, which we will predict through our long-term buy signals. This will be the period when altcoins face the greatest impact.