Is the weak rebound in BTC the end of the market? Can HYPE still be chased? What's the outlook for gold and silver?

Is BTC currently in a bear market? Absolutely yes.
Those who called for a slow bull last year and the super cycle at the beginning of this year have all shut up. The emphasis on the four-year cycle remains valid. Looking around, aside from a few KOLs still talking about the super cycle and the crazy altcoin season, most people have already accepted reality.
Regarding the bull-bear line: No matter what technical indicators you use, we are now fully in a bear market. The pattern has already broken down, the monthly MA20 has fallen below, various daily moving averages have long been broken, and Tang Anqi’s channel has broken below the 52-week low (volume is really huge). If you still think this is a bull market with such candlesticks, then you’re out of your mind.
Having discussed the overall macro environment, let’s look at the short-term trend. BTC rebounded from 60,000 to around 72,000, then retraced to around 70,000 and started sideways consolidation. Many people think the rebound is over and the market has no hope, but is that really the case?
Let’s review previous cycles: BTC rebounded from around 80,000 to 98,000, emphasizing that BTC experienced a downward trend to 80,000, then a rebound to about 92,000, retraced to around 90,000, and moved sideways within a range, finally retracing to around 84,000 before breaking back above 90,000. It then consolidated for a while before rebounding to the target of 98,000. This process was quite exhausting and time-consuming.
Now, looking at this wave of rebound: BTC rebounded from 60,000 to around 72,000, retraced to about 70,000 and consolidated sideways, which is very normal. No need to worry too much. If the price falls below 69,000 later, you can consider a short-term small short position, aiming for 67,000 and 65,000. When reaching these levels, you should take profit on the short. Then, reverse and go long towards 70,000. Major players often create such weak rebounds and fake drops to lure retail investors into chasing shorts, then make another rebound to harvest profits. Because once it falls below 67,000, many retail investors will look at 50,000.
Think about it differently: whether it’s BTC or altcoins, they’ve already fallen too much in the short term. The bear market is only one-third over. If it keeps falling like this, wouldn’t BTC drop to 10,000? That’s unlikely. Moreover, during a bear market, many downward trends don’t cause significant losses for most people. It’s the continuous violent rebounds that create a false impression, allowing larger players to harvest more retail investors. So, for our trading, unless there’s a breakdown to short, the main strategy should be to buy on dips. Short-term BTC trading range is around 65,000 to 75,000—buy low, sell high.
There’s no need for much analysis on ETH and SOL; their short-term movements are highly correlated with BTC. Just follow BTC’s trend. Those with some technical knowledge can draw Fibonacci retracement lines to identify key levels.
After covering the main cryptocurrencies, let’s look at altcoins. Currently, the hottest altcoin in the market is HYPE. Many ask if it can still be chased at this level. My advice is probably not. HYPE previously rebounded from the bottom and nearly doubled. Now, it might have some room to go higher, but I don’t think the risk-reward is worth it. Honestly, in the perpDEX sector, I don’t want to look at any other altcoins besides HYPE. I don’t like Aster either, but in the same sector with low market cap, if HYPE moves up, Aster and AVNT should also follow.
Next, let’s review the gold and silver trends:
I’ve emphasized before that after a sharp drop, gold and silver need at least a month to recover. During this period, the market mainly consolidates and repairs. I previously mentioned that gold might rebound in the coming days but won’t hit new highs. It’s also possible that the market will use Iran-related news as a short-term hype to push gold prices higher temporarily.
However, reaching new highs remains very difficult. There will be many short positions lurking near the new high levels. Short-term resistance for gold is around 5100–5200. It’s unlikely to go higher or reach new highs in the short term.
Silver is similar: after a violent bottom rebound, watch the 85–88 range for resistance. I also have long positions at the bottom; when it reaches this resistance, I will consider taking profits.
After the sharp decline, gold and silver need time to recover. Patience is key until new trends emerge.
That’s all for short-term analysis. Market movements are a continuous cycle. Set your alarm: in a bear market, dollar-cost average into Bitcoin, hold for 3 years, and wait for the profits. Making money is that simple—most people just don’t want to believe it.
The crypto bear market has 241 days left until the end of this cycle.
Hope you’ll join me in getting through this tough bear market. When the next bull run arrives, I hope we’re both ready.