I built a theoretical probability model to estimate the UP and DOWN price for BTC 15-minute markets on @Polymarket.

The model computes probabilities using only the target price, the current BTC price, and the time remaining before the round ends.
I didn’t expect this theoretical model to be that close to real market probabilities. The gap between market prices and the model’s probabilities is only 1–5%, which means the model tracks reality extremely well.
In this market, probabilities are directly set by traders.
This clearly shows how bot-dominated it is, driven by logical rules and algorithms.
If the market were mostly human-traded, real probabilities wouldn’t align this tightly with a theoretical model.